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15 minute opening range Forex

  • #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Edited Nov 1, 2023 3:15am Jun 19, 2023 2:00pm | Edited Nov 1, 2023 3:15am
Hi,

New update.

Using vwap with the method.

When?

Ny

8pm, 2am, 4am, 5am, 8am, 12 pm.

Why no 5am? Spread is big until tokyo opens.

How?

Measure the first 15m and place the vwap.

The second bar and 3rd will determing if price goes for a reversal and we enter on the vwap crossing if the vwap slopes and sl at 1sr diviation, and target is subjective nearest high or low.

One can of course hold long if price allows and the slope of the vwap does not change.

Example

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BYRtIZyu

Be careful of traiding both directions, not all brokers allow hedging.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #2
  • Quote
  • Jun 19, 2023 6:09pm Jun 19, 2023 6:09pm
Rules
1. Measure the opening range (around 4.4 pips)
2. It first went south, so buy the 38% or 50%
3. Stop loss 4.4
4. Tp 1.6 level or 2.6 level or prudent 1 to 1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oyhh0P2Q

If you followed the rules, you may have earned atleast a 1 to 1 r for euro london opening range reversal.

Rules
1. Measure opening range 9.2 pips
2. Went south so, buy on 38% or 50%,
3. Stop loss 9.4
4. Tp 1 to 1, or 1.6 or 2.6. This case only 1.6

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DvSX1Elx

One trade. If it fails, discipline self to take the next bank opening.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #3
  • Quote
  • Jun 19, 2023 7:28pm Jun 19, 2023 7:28pm
Quoting Sovy
Hi, Facts Volume normally is when the market opens. This volume comes from the news. The institutions know ahead of time and so they will normally in the first 15 mins position to get the best level. Issue When are these times? Tokyo opening, London Opening, New york opening and the first 15 minutes of that sets the range. Will price often goes one way? No, often there are reversals; so for our strategy, we will and shall only focus on the 15 minute reversal. Rules 1. Make a list of pairs with low spread where you can afford the stop loss, meaning...
What is the background or reasoning behind the development of this specific trading strategy, which involves focusing on the first 15 minutes of market openings, using Fibonacci retracement levels, and targeting reversals?
  • #4
  • Quote
  • Jun 19, 2023 11:40pm Jun 19, 2023 11:40pm
Background is I find its more profitable to trade with those who move the market and those are the instutions.

Its instutional behavior that orders made after the market opens, there are 1 min opening breakout, 5min, 15 min, 30 min, 1 hour, even 2 hours. I chose 15 minutes.

I use fibonacci since its easier to have a mechanical way to measure the strength of the movement by the in comparison to the size of the range and assume that there is enough buyers and or sellers riding in the orders.

I found a 1 to 1 with the breakout of the range happens most of the time. But a higher rr by teating it happens if there is a reversal. So, i focus all entries as reversals instead.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #5
  • Quote
  • Jun 19, 2023 11:47pm Jun 19, 2023 11:47pm
rules
1. Measure the 15 min opening range
2. Wait for it to breakout in 1 direction
3. Use the fib to meausure the 38 or 50% of the range as entry for the opposing direction.
4. If 5 mins confuses you, you may choose the 1 minute to enter.
5. Stop loss at end of the range, tp at 1.6 or 2.6. Of fib.

Note when it does 1 to 1 on your rr, worth noting to move break even plus 1. You may even close the trade. If you want, you may trail the stop, but it is harder.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/K76vlBYu
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #6
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 12:08am Jun 20, 2023 12:08am
On the above you will see if you traded with the 15 m range and in that direction, you would have made profit too. So a 1 to 1 r is high probability with it.

I have also found by experience that almost everyday on the first 5 mins of london to have high quality breakout that may or may not end up with 15 to 20 pips per pair. But i have not experimented with it on other time frames, and it's too hard to guess because it could, like the 15 min, also do a reversal.

Ex.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yHiKWets

5 min breakout is a bit too hard for me to have a consistent strategy. I almost often end up using a 25 pip stop loss, then tp the 1.6 of the 5 min range. So, the rr is definitely not in my favor, whereas the 15 mins allows more wiggle room.

1. Measure the range
2. Observe the first breakout
3. Wait for price to return to the range and ready an order if it goes for the 38 or 50 fib level. And go for a 1 to 1 to 1.6 or 2.6

Here is an example of 1 min range
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vYUjTA9s

The 1 min for me is to subjective and difficult to secure more than 1r, although same rule applies on the reversal where you can push more rr.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #7
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 12:15am Jun 20, 2023 12:15am
Quoting Sovy
On the above you will see if you traded with the 15 m range and in that direction, you would have made profit too. So a 1 to 1 r is high probability with it. I have also found by experience that almost everyday on the first 5 mins of london to have high quality breakout that may or may not end up with 15 to 20 pips per pair. But i have not experimented with it on other time frames, and it's too hard to guess because it could, like the 15 min, also do a reversal. Ex. https://www.tradingview.com/x/yHiKWets 5 min breakout is a bit too hard...
what do you think your win rate is on this and how long have you studied this concept
  • #8
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 12:19am Jun 20, 2023 12:19am
I simplified the fib for clarity

0, .5, 1, 1.5. 2.5. To 10.5

Rules

1. Meaures the 15 min range
2. See the break
3. Wait for the price to reverse at the 50% mark
4. Order in the reversal's direction.

Target 1 to 2.6 based on your risk tolerance.

The more movement the pair does, the more opportunity for you to make gains.

Jpy pairs enjoy this alot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #9
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 12:35am Jun 20, 2023 12:35am
The concept isn't new. Its been around for a long time. And researches has been done about opening range.

I been experimenting on the idea for the past 7 months.

Found the idea in one of the comments
Inserted Video


Percentage on more 1 rr based on the original not reversal is around 55 to 60%. This is already more than good if you have the capital to do 100 trades and never alter your risk.

55 to 60% with the 1 to 2 r for the reversal. Thats why i focus on it more. Over all the it has higher rate for me.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #10
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 12:44am Jun 20, 2023 12:44am
Quoting Sovy
The concept isn't new. Its been around for a long time. And researches has been done about opening range. I been experimenting on the idea for the past 7 months. Found the idea in one of the comments https://youtu.be/eS91CXSWIUo Percentage on more 1 rr based on the original not reversal is around 55 to 60%. This is already more than good if you have the capital to do 100 trades and never alter your risk. 55 to 60% with the 1 to 2 r for the reversal. Thats why i focus on it more. Over all the it has higher rate for me.
cool! I love UKspread channel lots of great systems on there
  • #11
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 1:20am Jun 20, 2023 1:20am
The nice thing i found about trading the 15 min range is you get in and then out and you dont spend more than 1 hour trading.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/H0Gq2yzg


Rules

Market opens at london,
1. Measure the range
2. Observe the breakout
3. Setup the fib
4. Enter at 50% 38 or 50% at reversal of the original breakout.
Target 1r or 1.5 r or 2.6

For more subjective target, target the nearest high before the range forms.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #12
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 8:48am Jun 20, 2023 8:48am
Rules

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ls71xi00

1. Measure the opening range 15 mins after the opening
2. Wait for the breach one way
3. Setup the fib 38/50%
4. Stop loss at other side of the reversal
5. Tp 1 to 1, 1.6, 2.6 or subjective high or low before the opening.

If you did this, you would have gotten a subjective 2.9rr this morning.

If you got stopped out. Don't trade anymore. Wait for the afternoon.

Our period is simply 1 hour.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #13
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 9:25am Jun 20, 2023 9:25am
Nice strategies any specific pair?
  • #14
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 9:40am Jun 20, 2023 9:40am
Capital mgt. For practice what should be my stop loss and tp for the week?

There are a lot of theories regarding stop loss, but i believe 1% to 5% should not be so tight. So that if you lose 1 trade, the dent is small.

Hence I would use friday's tokyo box range as the standard. That is 9am to 6pm of gmt plus 7. Subjective

Why such a wide stop loss? So you dont change your lot size every trade. And your results will be consistent.

What if I have a small account, then you have no choice but to start with atleast 25 pips equivalent to at most 5% per trade allowing 20 trades to practice. That is for a 50 dollar account.

Arbitrary equivalent to 1-5% may atleast be 10x your spread (minimum) then, 20 pips, 25 pips, 30 pips, 35 pips till 50 pips.

This is depending on your risk appetite.

Sample tokyo box stop loss for euro last friday. So i have a target of 28.6 pips plus for the week, but not necessarily per trade. 28.6 pips in this way is my week's major stop loss, but i wouldnt make it that long per trade but the size of my opening range.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/tCbClILY

Know that trading has an element of chance, and is therefore gambling. Meaning our rr must not be lower than 1 is to 1 and our percentage should not be less than 55%.

Knowing this, practice daily on the openings of your choice. Like london and ny has a wider range and has more volume than asia. But asia often allows patterns to form in it and is easier to trade with the reversal.

And when in doubt, only trade the amount you are willing to lose.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #15
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 9:41am Jun 20, 2023 9:41am
Mobile data, double post.

You guys may notice even in the higher time frame, based on the Friday link trade, woah, didnt it just happen a bigger version of this? Yes.

It's just that i cant guarantee it like the lower time frames. Tokyo box is a powerful driver and normally, even with the news, price conforms to where the tokyo box range goes.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #16
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 9:45am Jun 20, 2023 9:45am
To say the accuracy of the strategy, you should choose your pair and back test. I personally traded this with the majors and gold. So it works for me with them. However, you may have your own favorite.

Euro
Cable
Swissy
Kiwi
Ninja
The beast (gbp jpy)
Gold

I find jpy pairs are kind of more into following a trend. So, you may have to adjust not on daylight savings but on actual tokyo time if you trade when tokyo exchange is open.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #17
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 10:22am Jun 20, 2023 10:22am
Comparing the 1 min to 1 hour

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nAr1ZlxJ

While 1 min works, it is so fast and you can only do it if you use a pc. And probably with the help of market orders.

It works well, and the rr for the reversal is good but, it is too noisy for me.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wHuNvosZ

In this case 5 min range did pleasantly well too, just like the 1 min but you will note it would be really tempting to sell because of the two succeeding bars going down. But our strategy remains the same where we buy the reversal and so when the price goes up, it is successful.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xHHISOvs

The 15 min in 5 min candles allowed you to bypass some of the noise and thus, a smoother entry. And less likely to be stopped out.

Can i use 15 min candle? Yes. This is why I chose the 15 min range because 15 min candle takes time to form but isn't that slow either.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7hN9Fn8g

https://www.tradingview.com/x/altVPDYp

The 30 minute is a reversal also, but on the opposite of the 1 to 15 mins. So its a different opportunity.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5e8tPvSN

15 min candle of a 30 min range reversal

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JjKDu8He

30 min candle of a 30 min reversal. The 30 minute in my mind follows rhe major trend.

Finally the 1h

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xfVuN6u5

1h in 1h bars

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wtVVLvkE

1h in 30m bars

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gm4nvZnG

1h in 15 min bars.

---
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #18
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 4:49pm Jun 20, 2023 4:49pm
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wHuNvosZ
Can you explain where you are drawing the fib on this 5 minute chart. Which candles are you using? The 100% line seems to be in the middle of the larger bullish candle. thnx.
  • #19
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 6:53pm Jun 20, 2023 6:53pm
Hi

The rule is to take the range of the first 5 mins of that chart on a 5 min breakout. But i suggest a 15 minute breakout to avoid a lot of noise.

Anyway here is a clearer view

https://www.tradingview.com/x/g3fWGokJ

So you measure this with the fib from top to bottom

The 15 min rule

1. From opening of an exchange, this one tokyo measue the range of the first 15 mins
2. After that 15 min, where price pierces, is the initial move, dont make any orders.
3. If and when price returns to the 50% of the 15 min range, that is when you make your order to the opposing direction.

In this example.

Down, then up. Target 1 or 1.5 or 100% or 150%. That should net yet more than 1 to 2

My thesis is, reversals happen after the first 1 to 15 mins. What if there's no reversal? Then we dont trade.

What if its only a pullback? Then we lose the trade.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #20
  • Quote
  • Jun 20, 2023 8:40pm Jun 20, 2023 8:40pm
rules

1. London open 15 mins range, measure
2. See the pierce.
3. Measure the fib
4. If price reverses to the 40% to 50% sell in that direction.
5. Do 1 to 1r or 1.5 fib or subjective low to the left

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SKi2MDXk

Cable did pretty well. Whereas, euro didnt trigger at all. Or is just about to trigger.

Swissy and ninja respected the pierce and didn't reverse.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JyPQguVB

kiwi is impressive. The subjective low is pretty far but it continued to go down.

Same rules

1. London open
2. Measure the 15 min range
3. Observe the direction
4. Use the fib
5. If price returns to the 40 50% order in that direction

Target 1 to 1 or 150% level or subjective low or high.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
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