EURUSD H1From the H1 perspective: H1 CHOCH UP → ~1.1808 H1 BOS UP → ~1.18144 H4 close above the blue zone.
The market is saying: “The previous downtrend no longer has control.”
H4 close above 1.18332–1.1842 Break of the last LH
CHOCH UP (H4) Start of a bullish...
update EURUSD H4
Blue zone (≈ 1.1805–1.1815)- price failed to hold a close above the zone
- this was followed by a retest from below → rejection
- this is technically a bearish signal (failed S/R flip)
default bias shifts back to bearish / range-down
When could we still get back above the blue zone?
“Hope scenario”
Everything must happen together:
- H1 reclaim of 1.1805
- H1 close ABOVE the zone, not just a wick
- Subsequent pullback that holds the zone as support
Only then:
- we re-activate H1 BOS UP
- and get a second attempt at an H4 shift
Without this, every upside spike is just liquidity / short covering.
What the current reality says
- H1 is back below the key S/R
- the move looks more like a bearish channel / correction
- H4 still has no CHOCH UP
Probability of a return above the zone is < 40%
until a clear reclaim appears.
Before a larger drop, the only thing that can save it is if DXY rejects from resistance and moves downward.
Trendlines, SMC
.