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Fishing/Scalping with fundamental analysis on the US dollar

  • #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Nov 11, 2025 5:39am Nov 11, 2025 5:39am
Cos my last post on Euro USD ONLY was disliked, I think I will put here from now on, my views and trades on the Euro, GBP, and maybe JPY on GBP JPY.
Really, I don't understand why my view was disliked.

This is the original post from there.

"December FED will cut again.
This month can be up and down to 1.1750, 1.18 general target.
The question is how much after that and where.
I'm Up Euro, GBP till FOMC on 9 and 10 December. After that, scalp with no direction till 28 January next year.
Nov 14, Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2025 is important for further direction. Strong Short Dollar, sideways, or long.
Until then, Long Euro, GBP.
GBP has more room up than the Euro, but 14 Nov CPI is what we expect for the next 2 weeks."

About me. I started in 2008 and stopped in 2011.
Right, exactly on the big crush. Then I realise that fundamental analysis is the basis for any form of trade.
Now I'm back with more experience.


My system.

Fundametal First!
1. Understand the main story. What are the main stories that can move the markets?

2. Tehnical.

Round Numbers Levels.
Reject or Break Round Numbers Levels
THIS ACTIONS tell the story for today and tomorrow.
Why? Cos there are JPMorgan and other Sharks who are waiting there.
I go with the action made by them, not by their analysis. They made the market; my role is to find them!

RN (Round Numbers) tells the story. Point. If the trend changes, an RN will change.
If they want to go up or down, they have an RN in their minds.
If big news comes in 1- 2 weeks, they will go there, to a big RN level.
My charts are self-explanatory.
If you want more details, depending on my time, I will explain.


I don't promote anything, I don't sell, and I don't buy BS. I'm too old for this.
I hope to put all my trades. Bad and good.
From January 2026, I plan to make 10k to 100k in 1 2 years, that's my goal.
If not, it was a good experience.

Why do I do this?
For me! For discipline!
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  • #2
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  • Nov 11, 2025 5:56pm Nov 11, 2025 5:56pm
BP was against Long Euro. Too much hope this morning.
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  • #3
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  • Edited 5:46pm Nov 13, 2025 5:15pm | Edited 5:46pm
10% profit in 2 range days.
Maybe again buy from NY. GU was the problem last 2 days but the dollar came into play.
Tomorrow is the day for next week's direction. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on US.

Index 99.00 in play.
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  • #4
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  • Nov 13, 2025 6:21pm Nov 13, 2025 6:21pm
Euro update.
Direction remains UP after FED comments last Sunday until tomorrow.

Dollar Index big RN hit today. 99. Cycle done for next move.
Tomorrow, CPI will tell what we call it. Support or Rez.
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  • #5
  • Quote
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:33pm Nov 13, 2025 11:33pm
30 min till London FIX, INDEX is almoust hit at 99!
PS: BREAK INDEX DOWN!

LONG EURO; GBP;
SHORT JPY
direction to 9 10 December.
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  • #6
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  • Nov 13, 2025 11:42pm Nov 13, 2025 11:42pm
I am also blocked in the thread you got dislike. The thread is not the place to follow for long. I take this as hint and focus more on my skills. I wish you the best, seems you doing good so far.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #7
  • Quote
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:50pm Nov 13, 2025 11:50pm
Quoting MichaelSch
I am also blocked in the thread you got dislike. The thread is not the place to follow for long. I take this as hint and focus more on my skills. I wish you the best, seems you doing good so far.
Sorry, I don t get it.

This is my strategy and examples with real trade, small risk. Scalp. Like in the title, Scalp on Fundamental Story.

This thread is meant to give me discipline. This is first step to 100 K next year. I have the system but I don t follow my rules most of the time, that why I need this.
All the best for you, I don't mean to offend anybody.
  • #8
  • Quote
  • Nov 14, 2025 12:18am Nov 14, 2025 12:18am
Liquidity is important. Round numbers mean room for liquidity.

A few words about round numbers and why they are important.
First of all, they are easy to see, easy to say, easy to think about. When you say the euro is going to fall to 1.1, you don't tell someone it's going to fall to 1.10326, you just say: 1.1.

Second, these levels can be seen anywhere, by any trader or algorithm.
When the big players have something in their sights, it doesn't mean we're pushing the market to see GBP at 1.43927, we're just saying: 1.4 or 1.45.
That's why these levels are a target. Some will want to get there, some will get in there. It's crowded there.

In my opinion, if the round number is reached, it will create a reaction, big or small, depending on the situation, to what the central banks say or any major event. That's why some RN levels are a target, because it's easier to get liquidity from there.
A reaction mean a BREAK or REJECT. If we wait there to much, that mean we wait for a direction exactly from there. There is the place to enter.

Liquidity is important.
I'll continue.
  • #9
  • Quote
  • Nov 14, 2025 5:10pm Nov 14, 2025 5:10pm
Complicated. Today's CPI may appear on Nov 20.

Without it, there is no direction for Dollar INDEX.
I don't think it will enter today. No data, it's Friday. There is no clear direction.
Rumors are circulating. Just rumors.
Without clear data, there is no direction.

Speaking of Dollar Index, I found out why I got Ignored on the Euro Usd Only thread, because I attached an image with the dollar index, which is prohibited by the rules. This is crazy, how can they not take the index into account when talking about any pair with Dollar? So that thread is prohibited by the rules not to talk about the index. That Admin is at least Ignorant, to say the least.

I won't go into details, there is AI to find out what DXY means for trading today, what its importance is. It is fundamental for everything that moves on the stock exchanges, not just currencies.
So, Round Numbers and Dollar Index are the start of the analysis before anything else.

Great is the garden of God, you find all kinds of "intelligent people"
  • #10
  • Quote
  • Nov 20, 2025 2:41am Nov 20, 2025 2:41am
They say there's a big problem at the FED, Trump pressure, inflation pressure, Unemployment pressure.
The next few months are cabbage.

Exactly as I said, when news comes that can take the Dollar, the guys move to a round number. Now we are at 100 Index. exactly on target.
I have no hopes in any direction.
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  • #11
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  • Nov 20, 2025 5:07am Nov 20, 2025 5:07am
Quoting barbones
Cos my last post on Euro USD ONLY was disliked, I think I will put here from now on, my views and trades on the Euro, GBP, and maybe JPY on GBP JPY. Really, I don't understand why my view was disliked. This is the original post from there. "December FED will cut again. This month can be up and down to 1.1750, 1.18 general target. The question is how much after that and where. I'm Up Euro, GBP till FOMC on 9 and 10 December. After that, scalp with no direction till 28 January next year. Nov 14, Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2025 is important...
I want to learn your strategy, would you mind to teach?
  • #12
  • Quote
  • Edited Nov 21, 2025 12:32am Nov 20, 2025 8:19pm | Edited Nov 21, 2025 12:32am
Quoting emykav
{quote} I want to learn your strategy, would you mind to teach?
The basis of movements, on any stock exchange or FX, is given by the speculation that in the future something is going to increase or decrease.

You have 3 things:

The past - the chart - see what has happened on different economic data.
Now - Today economic data.
The Future - Where the price will evolve depending on the decisions of Central Banks based on today's data.


Depending on economic data, central banks have to act to raise or lower interest rates. It is not mandatory, they may not have to do anything.
If they have to then they change monetary policy, because they decide how much money to have in the market through the interest rate.

More money by lowering the Interest Rate - then economic growth but also inflation of money.
Less money by increasing the Interest Rate - economic decline but decreasing inflation.

Essentially

Central banks cut interest rates if the economy is doing badly - that means it will grow in the future.

You act speculating where will be all in the future.
You don t care about the past. The past it s over.
All the past patterns (from the charts) are useless if Central Bank decide the future.

If it does, you speculate that Apple will grow, let say. IF you know Apple will grow in the future, you buy it today to sell it in the future. You don t care about the chart. Sure, you try to buy from low, that for sure, but you know the DIRECTION of the future price. That is the most important.

Same with forex. If the economy is going to grow in the future - sell dollars against others, give up risk.

So, Central Banks must play in such a way that Inflation is not too high but also that savings do not decrease due to lack of money.
When there was a crisis, they put money through interest rates to 0, or even more.
When there is no crisis, interest rates increase.

Today, we are at the limit. We have high interest rates on the USD, unemployment is slowly increasing.
Trump says to lower interest rates to grow the economy, but that increases inflation. The FED says, we don't lower it too much, and look, they fight to increase or decrease the Interest Rate. Hence today's indecision, no one knows exactly what will happen next.

I said that everything is about speculation about the future, assuming that in the future, the economy will grow because the FED lowers or is going to lower the Interest Rate.

So, if you know that's the case, you speculate by buying stocks and selling dollars.

If you don't know what the FED is doing, you don't know what to do either, either FED take money out of the market and then you don't buy stocks and buy dollars, or FED will put money into the market by lowering the rate and you buy stocks and sell dollars. That's a simple explanation. Anyone who knows economics can explain it more clearly. In short, Interest Rates are speculated, Big sharks speculate the future.
Dollars versus the rest. Of course, the other Central Banks also have a say in their own currency, just as the ECB influences the Euro and so on.
Each one has their own interests depending on the economic data.

Essentially, if you speculate Dollars vs. another currency, you take into account the two economies and what the two central banks say.

Today, Trump says lower the rate, the Fed says I don't want it, so I have no idea what's next, and neither do others. It is assumed that the rate will be lowered in December but it is not certain, and that is why there is no clear direction for the coming months.

For the Euro, the Central Bank complains that the Euro is too high and yet it has been high since they have been complaining. I have come to believe that they do not want a weak Euro. And look, things are complicated today.

If we know that there is a high chance that the rate will be lowered in December but also in the coming months, then we have a direction, we speculate that the economies are growing, mainly the US, and so we buy stocks and sell Dollars, so, I have no idea now, because the economic data is contrary.
Inflation is a problem if the rate drops but unemployment is also a problem if the rate doesn't drop. We might see ranges everywhere until December or January, I don't know.

Until then, I speculate on news like NFP and CPI, scalp.
When the data shows a direction then maybe I stay more on the direction, today, I don't really have any other option. Only JPY carry trade and possible intervention against weak Yen, if there is to be one. For now JPY towards 160.

Technically, Round Numbers are the ones that attract prices, before the news, and after. If the news has a direction, then next big round number is the target.

Example - if NFP is realy bad and the economy it s bad, that mean FED will CUT the Rate. That mean economy will grow in the future and you sell the Dollar from 100 index to 90 index or buy euro from 1.1500 to 1.18, maybe 1.2

When an important news is coming, you will see that big round levels like 100 on the dollar index or 99 or 1.15 on the Euro are a magnet. From there you enter for what the news generates or, if you know before what is the RN magnet, you go in that direction before the news.

If the news doesn't generate anything, positions are closed and you see strange movements.

I am interested in having a direction, to enter in the probable direction that holds more. If I don't have it, I'm on the fence, like now with the Euro. Until last week, the data said that there are chances of the rate cut on FED, so economic growth, sell the Dollar, but the latest data say that the chances of the rate falling have decreased, if it did, so, I don't know. Range 1,15, or GBP in the 1.3 area.

You have direction, you have a trend, you have a wide movement, chances to make money on the trend.
You don't have direction, you do Scalp up and down, if you have a strong system.

If you have a strong Scalp system, you don't care about the direction, you go by the system, but if you don't, you look for the general trend, which right now isn't really there, on pairs with Dollars I mean and excluding JPY which is Carry.

In summary, read the news here on Forex Factory, they are what you need and make your own opinion. If you see that there is a direction, you see it from the news that talks about Interest Rates which sums up the rest of the news. Rates move because the rest of the economic data demands it. So, the general direction, if there is one, you find it from the news, if you have it, you know where the Dollar or the Euro, or the GPY, or stocks in general will go. Otherwise, you take the particular case and combine it with the general direction.

Let's be clear. You speculate on the future, what is to come, where you think the Euro or the Dollar will be!
The past, the charts, they don't say anything about the future, charts just helps you know where to enter, where to put a stop loss, where the price can turn in the future, but the past doesn't tell you the future, that's for sure, only economic data and central bank decisions tell you the future.

Tu resume - To make money, you need the see the future. The past it s over. What you need it s the direction from NOW to the Future.
Direction came from Central Banks. More Money - buy risky assets, Euro, GBP, etc. No more money - buy Safe Heaven, Dollars, CHF, Gold, etc.

Some say they know in which direction the Euro is going just by looking at the chart or with the help of indicators. I haven't seen them be too rich.
  • #13
  • Quote
  • Nov 20, 2025 8:49pm Nov 20, 2025 8:49pm
The target for NFP is 1.15 for GBP 1.30. Yesterday they broke above $100, today is support. The index came from a double top of 99, created last Friday, that strange up and down movement. This was the entry for the return to 100 for the index due to the problems with the rate cut from the FED. If there is no rate cut, the dollar rises, but we need to understand what the FED is doing. If there is any information about the direction, we will see it in the price. Today, we do not have a clear decision to cut the rate, that is why we are back to the dollar.
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  • #14
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  • Nov 20, 2025 9:35pm Nov 20, 2025 9:35pm
Unemployment is bad.
Chances of cutting the rate, chances. That's why it's up and down, it's not clear.
However, maybe they cut, if so, down Dollar.
  • #15
  • Quote
  • Nov 20, 2025 10:38pm Nov 20, 2025 10:38pm
Trade on Euro and Dollar index on NFP result. GBP was also up.

Like I sad, maybe we have rate cut. Index hit 100, retrace to 100.2 and euro retrace.
That was a trade on hope, not so good ideea. Now, we have a break down at 100. Have to go more to know future direction. Can be range here also.
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  • #16
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  • Nov 22, 2025 1:43am Nov 22, 2025 1:43am
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  • #17
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  • Edited Nov 23, 2025 3:08am Nov 22, 2025 9:10pm | Edited Nov 23, 2025 3:08am
Weekend. Have some fun.

The only way to win at roulette?
You play one color and double your bet with every loss it comes up.

And they know it, which is why they'll kick you out of the casino if they catch you.
But it fits perfectly into Risk Management.
Not necessarily doubling, that would be ideal, but you increase your risk with every loss. In the end, it still has to come up Green.
  • #18
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2025 3:16am Nov 23, 2025 3:16am
Technical speaking, BTC has a chance to move up from this week.
A chance. First day of Love.
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  • #19
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  • Nov 23, 2025 8:42pm Nov 23, 2025 8:42pm
The Love for BTC is back!
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  • #20
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  • Dec 5, 2025 5:48am Dec 5, 2025 5:48am
Speaking of DXY. Will 1.1640 hold for the Euro? Even 30 I think it will hold. With good unemployment, the FED is still cutting rates, the dollar is still going down, that's what I think. Otherwise I don't see DXY above 100, there's no way. We want economic growth, the dollar is going down!
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