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What is your best seasonal forex pair or stock to enter now?

  • #1
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  • First Post: Edited Jul 21, 2018 2:19am Apr 15, 2018 6:22pm | Edited Jul 21, 2018 2:19am
Scanning for historical seasonal trends,what are the date to enter and exit your trade for stock ,forex,or any other market ?

Past trade example

Natural gas
BUY Feb 21
EXIT March 10
This trade lost money 15% of the time in the last 12 years
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  • #2
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  • Apr 15, 2018 9:26pm Apr 15, 2018 9:26pm
Quoting Pedroall
What is your best seasonal forex pair or stock to enter now? For me MAR is a good stock to sell now . Seasonal chart show a decline starting about mid april and may {image}
For me, EURUSD & GBPUSD (Forex). Although, I work with almost 10 trading pairs.
  • #3
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  • Apr 15, 2018 10:50pm Apr 15, 2018 10:50pm
Quoting Majeeda
{quote} For me, EURUSD & GBPUSD (Forex). Although, I work with almost 10 trading pairs.
what are your rule to enter beside the seasonal?
  • #4
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  • Apr 16, 2018 1:00pm Apr 16, 2018 1:00pm
Forex is one of the most reliable online earning sources today where we are actually receiving the opportunities to earn money from currency exchanges. However, we are trying to trade currencies according to the trading requirements of us. I prefer major pair trading and I basically like to trade JPY/USD, EUR/USD pair most. And basically I am a micro trader and I don抰 want to involve in high risks thereby I think that major pair trading makes my trading easier somehow.
  • #5
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  • Edited 7:25pm Apr 17, 2018 5:43pm | Edited 7:25pm
Quoting pedroall
what is your best seasonal forex pair or stock to enter now? For me mar is a good stock to sell now . Seasonal chart show a decline starting about mid april and may {image}
eurusd
mid april look for a top?
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  • #6
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  • Edited Apr 18, 2018 6:10pm Apr 17, 2018 6:44pm | Edited Apr 18, 2018 6:10pm
Quoting Pedroall
real {image}
The month of april show a seasonal top for eurusd with 63% win rate
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  • #7
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  • Apr 18, 2018 10:26am Apr 18, 2018 10:26am
For me, best is always EUR USD. I don't know why but I love to trade EUR USD because of its movement.
  • #8
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  • Apr 20, 2018 12:57am Apr 20, 2018 12:57am
I don't think there is such thing as seasonal forex pair. Forex market mainly moves based on financial development and other factors of the said country. And the economy of a country may not perform in same way as it did the previous year. For me I always trade on GBPUSD all the year.
  • #9
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  • Apr 20, 2018 9:09am Apr 20, 2018 9:09am
Quoting Pedroall
Scanning for historical seasonal trends,what are the date to enter and exit,or any other market ?
//----
//----

hey pedroall...... corn , soybeans , soybean meal and soybean oil..... get in around january and out around june...... wheat would be the inverse of those dates......

the tarriffs might have a negative impact on soybeans this year.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #10
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  • Edited 9:34am Apr 21, 2018 4:50am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- //---- hey pedroall...... corn , soybeans , soybean meal and soybean oil..... get in around january and out around june...... wheat would be the inverse of those dates...... the tarriffs might have a negative impact on soybeans this year.....h
thanks.
  • #11
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  • Edited Apr 22, 2018 7:31pm Apr 21, 2018 11:39pm | Edited Apr 22, 2018 7:31pm
BIG MOVE COMING
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  • #12
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  • Apr 22, 2018 11:57pm Apr 22, 2018 11:57pm
grains
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  • #13
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  • Apr 23, 2018 12:29am Apr 23, 2018 12:29am

April and May are strong months for oil and natural gas. There is a consistent annual trend of Feb-May strength in energy that peaks in April, with an average gain of 6.5% over the past decade. It then reverses in the final four months of the year. Similar patterns occur in natural gas with strength from April-June, including 8 consecutive Aprils of gains. No pattern is infallible, as oil declined 2.5% last April. Given the seasonal strength in energy, it抯 no surprise that April is also the weakest month on the calendar ?by far ?for USD/CAD. The pair has averaged a 2.45% decline over the past decade including declines in 10 of the past 12 years.


So far Oil is up and USD/CAD is down for April 2018, but we still have 6 days to go

  • #14
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  • Apr 23, 2018 12:45am Apr 23, 2018 12:45am
Quoting Pedroall
grains
//-----

hey pedroall..... speakin of stocks, you can also look at anything seasonal/weather affected ..... such as..... home depot, nyse ticker hd, ..... lowes, nyse ticker low...... and so on..... the builders etf's are some examples of others....

the dia, spy and qqq also have somewhat common seasonal patterns of strength and weakness.... quite often they are strong leading up to april 15th and weak around september......

there are 2x and 3x bull and bear versions of major index etf's......

i would never suggest someone do as i, but what works for me is options on those above..... options are the second quickest way to lose all your money..... forex is first......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #15
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  • Apr 25, 2018 7:42pm Apr 25, 2018 7:42pm
$302,502 $252,402 505.0% $252,502 2,285
$50K TO OVER 1/4 MILLION
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  • #16
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  • Apr 26, 2018 5:43pm Apr 26, 2018 5:43pm
Spy
buy 04/27
exit 06/07
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  • #17
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  • Apr 30, 2018 10:19pm Apr 30, 2018 10:19pm
Are there any other market or stock that trade down at least 75% of the time staring in may?
  • #18
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  • May 12, 2018 7:57pm May 12, 2018 7:57pm
Quoting Pedroall
Spy buy 04/27 exit 06/07 {image}
===========================
[quote=Sell in May and Halloween Effects
Another popular investment strategy is to abide by the guidelines of selling in May, and staying out of the picture until after Halloween. Statistics show that stocks have routinely performed 4.5 times better in November through April than during the summer months. While this strategy reflects historical patterns, there is always the possibility that individual stocks may outperform or entirely disregard past trends.[/quote]
========================
Book opinions about the time to sell contradict.
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  • #19
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  • May 12, 2018 8:52pm May 12, 2018 8:52pm
Quoting Pedroall
Are there any other market or stock that trade down at least 75% of the time staring in may?
"Sell in May, Go Away." - eh?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sell_in_May

You can identify seasonal trends in lots of things. I look at specific underlying factors and impending events, also, though.

"Credit anticipates, equity confirms."

The main thing that steepens the path for US equities in any time frame going forward is rising interest rates. Another ffr hike is expected from the FOMC on 6/13. Expectations of rising rates are apparent in the movement in bond yields (see ^TNX) - the 10-yr UST bond bumped above 3% briefly in late April and that led to sideways action in the S&P for a few weeks. Watching yields will be instructive - if ^TNX starts running to 3.1+% in the next few weeks, I'd expect equities to slide or flatline going into June.

The results of NAFTA talks in the coming week or so could have a binary influence - a breakdown could revive trade war fears generally and hurt US equities.

I have been trading bullish SPY positions heavily for the last few weeks and have done well, especially in the last week or two. I have bullish trades coming off in the next week, also. But now I am looking to position for stocks sliding into and after the June FOMC.

The meeting between Trump and Kim coincides with the June FOMC.......more fuel for a volatility spike, potentially.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20
  • Quote
  • May 13, 2018 9:25pm May 13, 2018 9:25pm
Quoting Pedroall
Do you look for any other indicator signal to confirm your views? {image}
I look at charts but I have not put an indicator on one in many years. I mostly trade options spreads so I am paying attention to the relative price and implied volatility between different strikes. I try to anticipate breakouts and/or consolidation periods, but I am using common knowledge of events and sentiment rather than any indicators. I look at chart history to measure moves around recurrent events. I look at volume. I wouldn't go so far as to say that I don't need charts to trade, but I often put on trades without confirming anything in the chart. Over 75% of all my trade volume is in SPY weekly options spreads.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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