EU on H4 sold target 114 if it goes down.
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GANN Measurements Weekly + Monthly OT
Hi Ian
Thanks for the mention
The holy grail in trading and Investing is being positioned along with the price cycle movement - this can be a trend, counter-trend correction, swing, big move or little move
Because price spirals move in waves/cycles - NOT Elliott Waves - they drag certain Indicators around with them, yes Indicators are lagging, but you can use them smartly and when you do you shove the odds massively in your favour which results in a high win rate AND R value return
This chart shows the 15 min time-frame of the FTSE100 Index
The vertical BLUE lines show when the 15 min stochastic makes a bullish reversal - its not precise but its close enough for this purpose
We can clearly see that there is price movements upwards to some degree on most bullish reversals in the Indicator
the up moves are subdued in downtrends, this is because the higher higher time-frame is down rather than up and until that turns up from down you'll fight against the trend - that is not to say you can't make money on counter-trend moves because you can, I'll show you in the last chart of this sequence
so anyway, on these 15 min stoch reversals, PRICE should rally
All I have done here is drop down the time-frame to 5 mins - the vertical lines are still the 15 min stoch reversals from chart 1
This should also explain why when you [meaning 99% who trade the stochastic and it doesn't work out] sometimes take a perfect stoch reversal trade and it fails - you were out of alignment with the higher time-frame stoch and price cycle movement
this next chart shows the 2 min timeframe with the same 15 min stoch revs on it and the red vertical lines are when the 15 min stoch made a bearish reversal
the lessons here are trade the path of least resistance and in the DIRECTION of the bigger higher time-frame price cycle
This one shows multiple time-frame analysis intra-day again trading a counter trend move - 30 min chart = down
The hourly was also oversold = "IF" it reverses then EVERYTHING underneath it [TIME wise] WILL 100% GUARANTEED reverse to the upside by some amount - so we sit and wait for the tell-tale signs of a bullish trend reversal and they appeared on the 15/5 and 2 min charts = trade off the 2 min chart!
Obviously for those pedantic people out there, I am NOT saying the trade was 100% guaranteed to happen, I am saying IF the stoch position signals genuine oversold and we get a true genuine bullish reversal that goes up to or beyond the 50% level on the 1 hour chart then it means price has rallied and if price rallies on the hourly, it usually creates great trading opportunities on the 5/2 or 1 min charts
I show on the 2 min chart the time i got into the trade - you then manage the trade off the 15min or 30 min or hourly chart - i got out when the 15 min stoch went overbought as I didn't have the time to manage it thereafter - up to you how you play it
This isn't anything new, Walter Bressert in the 1990's wrote about this
Thanks for the mention
The holy grail in trading and Investing is being positioned along with the price cycle movement - this can be a trend, counter-trend correction, swing, big move or little move
Because price spirals move in waves/cycles - NOT Elliott Waves - they drag certain Indicators around with them, yes Indicators are lagging, but you can use them smartly and when you do you shove the odds massively in your favour which results in a high win rate AND R value return
This chart shows the 15 min time-frame of the FTSE100 Index
The vertical BLUE lines show when the 15 min stochastic makes a bullish reversal - its not precise but its close enough for this purpose
We can clearly see that there is price movements upwards to some degree on most bullish reversals in the Indicator
the up moves are subdued in downtrends, this is because the higher higher time-frame is down rather than up and until that turns up from down you'll fight against the trend - that is not to say you can't make money on counter-trend moves because you can, I'll show you in the last chart of this sequence
so anyway, on these 15 min stoch reversals, PRICE should rally
All I have done here is drop down the time-frame to 5 mins - the vertical lines are still the 15 min stoch reversals from chart 1
This should also explain why when you [meaning 99% who trade the stochastic and it doesn't work out] sometimes take a perfect stoch reversal trade and it fails - you were out of alignment with the higher time-frame stoch and price cycle movement
this next chart shows the 2 min timeframe with the same 15 min stoch revs on it and the red vertical lines are when the 15 min stoch made a bearish reversal
the lessons here are trade the path of least resistance and in the DIRECTION of the bigger higher time-frame price cycle
This one shows multiple time-frame analysis intra-day again trading a counter trend move - 30 min chart = down
The hourly was also oversold = "IF" it reverses then EVERYTHING underneath it [TIME wise] WILL 100% GUARANTEED reverse to the upside by some amount - so we sit and wait for the tell-tale signs of a bullish trend reversal and they appeared on the 15/5 and 2 min charts = trade off the 2 min chart!
Obviously for those pedantic people out there, I am NOT saying the trade was 100% guaranteed to happen, I am saying IF the stoch position signals genuine oversold and we get a true genuine bullish reversal that goes up to or beyond the 50% level on the 1 hour chart then it means price has rallied and if price rallies on the hourly, it usually creates great trading opportunities on the 5/2 or 1 min charts
I show on the 2 min chart the time i got into the trade - you then manage the trade off the 15min or 30 min or hourly chart - i got out when the 15 min stoch went overbought as I didn't have the time to manage it thereafter - up to you how you play it
This isn't anything new, Walter Bressert in the 1990's wrote about this
THT
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Psalm 84: 10-12 | 803 Posts
NZUSD opened below the weekly mid on Monday. basically it should go down to weekly lows, but Amy did say about one exception to this somewhere.
after two days on Wednesday , mid week, price broke below weekly mid and went down to weekly lows on Friday , breaking the monthly mid and stopping its decline very close to the weekly 61.8% low.
infact 59.28 was the exact price low and the 61.8% weekly low green line was at 59.268 only 1.2 pips below.
Then like it was following orders it advanced all the way back to the weekly mid. 60.269 was the high for the day.
It doing as Amy said and posted many times. cool. (amyc here on FF)
2nd chart on H4 looking left along the blue box shows an important level where price traded 2 weeks ago.
3rd chart m5 showing price going very close to the 61.8% weekly low
after two days on Wednesday , mid week, price broke below weekly mid and went down to weekly lows on Friday , breaking the monthly mid and stopping its decline very close to the weekly 61.8% low.
infact 59.28 was the exact price low and the 61.8% weekly low green line was at 59.268 only 1.2 pips below.
Then like it was following orders it advanced all the way back to the weekly mid. 60.269 was the high for the day.
It doing as Amy said and posted many times. cool. (amyc here on FF)
2nd chart on H4 looking left along the blue box shows an important level where price traded 2 weeks ago.
3rd chart m5 showing price going very close to the 61.8% weekly low
{quote} Hi Andrew thankyou very much for your time to post this valuable information. It is much appreciated. I spent some time testing yesterday. I was using Drake delayed stochastic and Dtosc. 8,3,3 stochastics as you showed is actually doing better. Also before I did use 3 stochastics on one chart 8,3,3 . 16,6,6 27,9,9. as part of a method I was taught by another pro trader. 4 charts below m5 , m15, m30, H1 last Friday on NZUSD . RSI 2 was in the oversold alerting the day before, shown in chart 5 My next post below shows what Im currently working...
Yes I watch multiple look back periods of the same indicator too - I prefer the other time-frames though
The main thing is that we track price cycles according to how you trade
EDIT - Here's some action from today - very little thinking, just noticing the alignments - no calcs of levels or anything, just going with the trend
Hourly made a bearish reversal on the orange inside bar - this might mean we have some sort of trend down for a few hours - obviously this happened, but at the time its just a possibility
30 min - moving averages are bullish, stoch is bearish - one is right on this time-frame its hard to work out which - 15 min was similar to 30 min
5 mins - Here we go - divergence on the stoch, price closes under the 10 SMA = bearish, you could trade this if you like - I prefer to get in and out asap so traded the 2 min chart
2 min = IF, always an IF - IF the higher tme-frames are right, then price should move downwards, ideally in a trend that we can trade - It did - I got in short on the 2 rallies back to the 10 SMA on this time-frame and got out for 2R each trade - finished for the day, possibly the week depending upon how I feel
Walter Bressert published this in the 90's - which is what has happened in the charts above
THT
{quote} Hi Andrew Thank you for your kindness posting this example. It is clear and simple, easy to understand with the details explained. Thank you for the Walter Bressert image. I seen it a few days ago in one of your posts and started to read some of his book. THE POWER OF OSCILLATOR/CYCLE COMBINATIONS. chapter 12 on Stochastics is interesting. I see he mentions a 10 week and 10 day stochastic. Recently the 8,3,3 stochastic on daily and weekly aligned on my charts for the 350... pip upmove in NZUSD starting around Jan 16th. I seen a nice one...
Settings are up to you, there's no magic formula, although the bigger the number the longer the reversals so you'll find anything under 20 works pretty good - Bressert went on to create a double smoothed stochastic
The Important thing is working out the price cycle, because once that turns, it drags everything along with it - there's cycles within cycles within cycles etc so if you trade and it fails, it basically means you're too early - the only reason I dropped time-frames was to try to avoid losses, even when you're wrong, you can sometimes get the stop to break-even
Once a stochastic makes a reversal, IF the cycle is genuine, then the swing low/high will not be touched for ages - think wave reversal points on Elliott wave and as seen on your charts price will regain the MAC and give higher highs and higher lows until it konks out of steam - we only need to catch a little each day of these moves (if you trade everyday)
Exactly like the charts you show - price cycle ending, stochs in the buy zone - if its going to reverse upwards, then you'll see bullish price formation on the 5 min chart which happened = get long and trail stop based off the higher time-frames to suit
Obviously there will be times when the stoch is in the buy zone and price continues down - you'll usually not get drawn into a trade as you'll not get the bullish formations forming - if you try to jump the bullish formations then you'll have more losses
If you've read Robert Miners High Prob trading strats book - this comes out of it - you'll see a crossover between him and Bressert in using cycles and oscillators etc
THT
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,199 Posts
{quote} Hi Andrew Thank you very much for your help. It has come at the best time as Im forming a method. Absolutely the important thing is working out the price cycle. Here with the posts you have kindly shared I have a good grasp of what to look for and what to do. I greatly appreciate you taking the time to post these gems of trading wisdom. I have more confidence to reproduce my results of 5% gain last week in NZUSD going forward. Bressert double smoothed stochastic is on my chart for testing with the 8,3,3 normal stochastic. Ian
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Psalm 84: 10-12 | 803 Posts
{quote} my results of 5% gain last week in NZUSD
Liquidity areas are getting more easier to spot, especially the one in the middle of a big 1hr candle. charts below some of last week on NZUSD.
I greatly appreciate the time and effort you have spent sharing your trading wisdom. Thank you
Ian
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,199 Posts
{quote} Hi Terry Liquidity areas are getting more easier to spot, especially the one in the middle of a big 1hr candle. charts below some of last week on NZUSD. I greatly appreciate the time and effort you have spent sharing your trading wisdom. Thank you Ian {image} {image}
anytime you wanna get on zoom again let me know. will try fit it in around my dad's chemo treatment
- Joined Feb 2024 | Status: Trader | 1,015 Posts
{quote} glad it has been helping you. at least you know how to get targets in advance now
