Disliked{quote} No only on here - if you tag me into something, it will show up on my quoted list to respond to I don't do PM's or divulge emailIgnored
Stochastic secrets
{quote} Thanks for your response. I started out trading with fibs and have a quick look at them but found out they were too subjective (including identifying the pivot points)
Price fell to the 50-61.8% level, but was not exact - the extended geometrical angle through a geometrical level of the box caught the fall exactly and bounced - to be fair this price level fell to 57.7% and reversed too right on the extended angle line - 57.7% Is a CUBE geometry based % level - the SP500 back in March 2009 FELL 57.69% (0.01% accurate) and stopped dead and then suddenly reversed!
SO - Although this all looks wonderful, you would still need some thing to signal a reversal and if you had a stoch Indicator on your chart that would have shown the reversal
Remember with trading EVERYTHING you trade has to be based on probabilities - this means we need to through enough "mud" at a wall and some of it will stick, the ones that don't need to be cut fast, the ones that stick, will tell you the win rate, average win and average loss etc
I hope I've not confused you - The aim here was to show you how you can trade retracement levels, but they are more tricky because you just do not know what geometry price is working out to - Sometimes it will be Fib, other times the square, cube etc - but it is truly amazing that humans are buying and selling causing these levels to show up or something is causing the humans buying and selling to work out to geometry
If this is an area of Interest, take a look at this next chart, its fairly self-explanatory:
Weekly time-frame / price plunges down and find support exactly on a angle extended from the 75% level of a range/box that was formed over 9 years during a bearish section of history - Now I do not know the answer to this, but if you think about the geometry, price HAD to plunge for whatever reasoning, to complete whatever geometry was playing out, in order for it be able to move on forwards/upwards
Anyway - back to basic trading - A stoch indicator tracks MARKET CYCLES in price - you can use them to pre-empt turns, again its not 100% accurate, but if you have an idea of a trend, you can use them to trade in the direction of the trend and you know what everyone says about trading with the trend!
I'll leave it there - If you read those books I mentioned it all starts to make sense
THT
1 last example following on from the post above - Pre-Empting turns........................................................................................
I wasn't going to show this but have decided to as I'm out of the position now
The most IMPORTANT aspect to this is the PRICE FORMATION = either a double or Triple Bottom possibility
EACH bottom is confirmed by the STOCH (WEEKLY TF) position = If the assumption is correct there WILL BE some sort/type of rally
The Double Bottom was pretty rubbish, so lets focus on the TRIPLE Bottom
Price ventured INTO the #1 price bar range + Daily TF Stoch was oversold/buy zone
You have a choice, buy the Daily TF when the Stoch makes a bullish reversal or drop down a time-frame - the choice is yours
As you can see either worked
PS - Look at the charts and note why you don't randomly buy every stoch reversal! There HAS to be some type of higher level context, in this case it was double/triple bottoms, it could quite have easily been a fib retracement or elliott wave type count or whatever you find works at reversal points
This is the 60 min chart:
We get price moving ABOVE the moving averages, we get moving average cross overs and we get higher highs and higher lows - EVERYTHING you'd expect in an uptrend and that is what we were anticipating based off the WEEKLY chart price position and stoch position - from which you can easily exploit
Flick through weekly charts, see if anything looks like it might be in a position bounce - then drill down the time-frames for confirming facts
The lower time frames ALWAYS move first, all the way up to the time-frame you are watching, a bounce on the weekly chart means that the 60 min and daily move a decent amount for you to profit from - your job as a trader is to identify the bounces of significance, which is the hard bit and out of frustration because you can't wait patiently, you'll bang on a trade made to "fit" and then bang you'll have a loss
But if you think and apply logic, you can beat the game
I wasn't going to show this but have decided to as I'm out of the position now
The most IMPORTANT aspect to this is the PRICE FORMATION = either a double or Triple Bottom possibility
EACH bottom is confirmed by the STOCH (WEEKLY TF) position = If the assumption is correct there WILL BE some sort/type of rally
The Double Bottom was pretty rubbish, so lets focus on the TRIPLE Bottom
Price ventured INTO the #1 price bar range + Daily TF Stoch was oversold/buy zone
You have a choice, buy the Daily TF when the Stoch makes a bullish reversal or drop down a time-frame - the choice is yours
As you can see either worked
PS - Look at the charts and note why you don't randomly buy every stoch reversal! There HAS to be some type of higher level context, in this case it was double/triple bottoms, it could quite have easily been a fib retracement or elliott wave type count or whatever you find works at reversal points
This is the 60 min chart:
We get price moving ABOVE the moving averages, we get moving average cross overs and we get higher highs and higher lows - EVERYTHING you'd expect in an uptrend and that is what we were anticipating based off the WEEKLY chart price position and stoch position - from which you can easily exploit
Flick through weekly charts, see if anything looks like it might be in a position bounce - then drill down the time-frames for confirming facts
The lower time frames ALWAYS move first, all the way up to the time-frame you are watching, a bounce on the weekly chart means that the 60 min and daily move a decent amount for you to profit from - your job as a trader is to identify the bounces of significance, which is the hard bit and out of frustration because you can't wait patiently, you'll bang on a trade made to "fit" and then bang you'll have a loss
But if you think and apply logic, you can beat the game
THT
1 last example following on from the post above - Pre-Empting turns........................................................................................ I wasn't going to show this but have decided to as I'm out of the position now The most IMPORTANT aspect to this is the PRICE FORMATION = either a double or Triple Bottom possibility EACH bottom is confirmed by the STOCH (WEEKLY TF) position = If the assumption is correct there WILL BE some sort/type of rally {image} The Double Bottom was pretty rubbish, so lets focus on the TRIPLE Bottom Price...
Seems as if you almost were peaking at my trading guidelines
I use Double and Triple tops (and throw in a triangle/wedge) with the RSI.
How/when do you confirm if it is a valid DT/TTP ? Past the neckline ? (in the old days it used to be called a head & shoulders)
Pervaz
{quote} Hi Thtpro Seems as if you almost were peaking at my trading guidelines
For me, the bounce is confirmation, In a perfect world I'm looking for the swing pivot point of #1 or 2 to be taken out ideally - These moves can (but often don't) be the start of a mega move
As we know though markets don't move perfectly, So I personally class a half decent move off the DB/TB level as confirmation and let the move run as much as possible
THT
