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Attachments: Price Action & Order Flow (Gold|Silver|Copper)

Price Action & Order Flow (Gold|Silver|Copper)

GOLD >5035
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5040 and weekly VWAP are held nicely so far. Kinda hoped 5080 would be held but Tokyo brought it down.
Any anomalies in the order flow? I suspect there was absorption below VWAP.
Nice liquidity flush yesterday, congrats to the survivors. Interesting how it happened a day before CPI...
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Interesting how they're distributing volume on VAL right before CPI.
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I would love to hear if anyone saw the play in Gold this week.
I would love to hear if anyone saw the play in Gold this week.
what day? the mass supply day..?
This week Gold against Dollar movement be like, After taking upside External Liquidity taken at 5128, Market aims down at Bearish FVG around 5000 before aiming 5200 this week , inconclusion market may looks in favour for Buyers at he 3rd week of Feb
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{quote} what day? the mass supply day..?
I'm interested in hearing other people's view on this week. Share your analysis.
I saw that they were holding price until a day before CPI, where they took out stop liq., and I thought "What are the odds that they did this because CPI is gonna be soft?" So holding price, dropping it a day before the data, distributing volume below 5000, and CPI was indeed soft. Their intention was so obvious that it's retarded.
Now, the assumption is that price will pump from here, but taking into consideration the Shanghai pause I wouldn't be surprised if we see a flush or two again...
I don't think people understand what I'm trying to do with this thread. It's easy to analyze a market with a few price levels, trend lines, indicators, heck even the order flow data, but it's sure a headache to get into the mind of the big players. That's really the only reason I made this thread since I don't see any that are actually interested in that. The tools that are used for analysis are only there because they are the closest thing a retail trader can use to have a peak into the institutional world.
I don't care if delta is 500 +/- on a bar, I don't care if the market respects a trend line, I don't care if price will react to the VWAP, all I care is whether or not the big players want to be positioned on X and Y, and what are their potential steps to accomplish that.
This thread is really boring for that matter, but I hope some really boring people will find it.
{quote} I'm interested in hearing other people's view on this week. Share your analysis. I saw that they were holding price until a day before CPI, where they took out stop liq., and I thought "What are the odds that they did this because CPI is gonna be soft?" So holding price, dropping it a day before the data, distributing volume below 5000, and CPI was indeed soft. Their intention was so obvious that it's retarded. Now, the assumption is that price will pump from here, but taking into consideration the Shanghai pause I wouldn't be surprised...
oh.. the last week's sell off yea.. not quite but I think it is because of something..
here is some gem..
all I see that day was bleeding equities.. obviously they are drowning in their positions and selling everything they can to cap those.. and gold's one of the options beside BTCs..
interestingly the book on that session also telling no buyers left and it only has 1 option to go..
well.. let us see what next week's action will do..
I don't think people understand what I'm trying to do with this thread. It's easy to analyze a market with a few price levels, trend lines, indicators, heck even the order flow data, but it's sure a headache to get into the mind of the big players. That's really the only reason I made this thread since I don't see any that are actually interested in that. The tools that are used for analysis are only there because they are the closest thing a retail trader can use to have a peak into the institutional world. I don't care if delta is 500 +/- on a...
yea this is for boring people not for actual boring people..
keep bumping this up..
{quote} oh.. the last week's sell off yea.. not quite but I think it is because of something.. here is some gem.. all I see that day was bleeding equities.. obviously they are drowning in their positions and selling everything they can to cap those.. and gold's one of the options beside BTCs.. interestingly the book on that session also telling no buyers left and it only has 1 option to go.. well.. let us see what next week's action will do..
I wish I could see the book but currently unable. You say no buyers but what type? What was the situation with bid/offers on those friday volumes? My assumption is that the thursday sellof filled large bids followed by dip buying. Even TradingView's CVD was ticking up.
Hey Duksi,,,

I was solely focused on ES this past week...Only looked at the gold charts a few times.

From what I understand that flash crash of $180 or so on Thurs was just a stop loss cascade.
Fueled by the new CME change from fixed dollar based margins to percentage based margins
and then they just recently increased those again.

As price pushed up during the week I think traders just got margin thin and then the dam broke.

Manipulated by the CME and big players who then steeped in at value/vwap with a boatload of buyside liquidity

Just my retail amateur simple basic thoughts But many factors obviously in play. All those bounces the past week off of
the 1SD and then Thur thats where the damn broke...smashing thru the 1SD...quite the move.

The CME is trying to curtail excessive speculation and perhaps they so another increase in margin ?

For me I'm staying away from Gold for the time being... I prefer the ES and I cant justify risking the margins
for GC and dealing with the applying appropriate risk with the volatility. It's a beast let alone Silver wow lol,,,,

Did I see that coming ? no not at all.. At least not that violent of a move...I think we can normally expect
a reversion to vwap especially with that extended time outside of 1SD..If I was trading GC and if price
broke thru 1SD held below and retested. I maybe would have shorted as a reversion play..but big maybe.
and it would be small size in the current environment.

As for getting into the mind or intent ? of the Big players...hmmm well we saw there intent with their
absorption at monthly vwap.. Have to love the VWAP for what it reveals... But I know you are very well
aware of how that all works... How about COT data ? For a bigger picture view of their intent ?

I do know that there are retailers who track the weekly data and use it effectively...

Cheers !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
Hey Duksi,,, I was solely focused on ES this past week...Only looked at the gold charts a few times. From what I understand that flash crash of $180 or so on Thurs was just a stop loss cascade. Fueled by the new CME change from fixed dollar based margins to percentage based margins and then they just recently increased those again. As price pushed up during the week I think traders just got margin thin and then the dam broke. Manipulated by the CME and big players who then steeped in at value/vwap with a boatload of buyside liquidity Just my retail...
Thanks for the commentary. Nothing to add there, you said it well.
Looked at Options yesterday, a whole lot of puts below 5000. Interesting...

(edit)
So, even in Options there are generally more bulls if I understand correctly. That large put volume on 4700 for expiration 24th Feb. seems more like a short-term bet based on the selloffs we've seen; still calls outnumber puts. But look at March (2nd image), calls outnumber puts by 10.016 contracts.
I'm starting to find Options very interesting. What do you guys think?
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Got my hands on the book, Gold.
Convince me that this chart looks bearish.

(edit)
What is assumed to be demand according to key price ranges in my document, is visible in the book: bids clusters on D1 5000 - 4900.
Filled bids + dip buying + more demand coming in and offers thinning out.
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Silver.
We could get another leg down to 72 -71 looking at those bids. Offers seem to hold price, but if they are swept we should see demand coming in on 78 - 80.
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Does anybody have an idea on what type of algo behavior is seen here? It follows price with a single order 12 - 15 dollars away from price.
I couldn't find any info on this, seems strange.

(Edit)
It seems to be a sort of directional signaling or like a lead. Every time it's below price, the market starts to sell off; when it switches and appears above price, the market starts to push higher.
Is anybody watching these anomalies in the heatmap DoM?
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Does anybody have an idea on what type of algo behavior is seen here? It follows price with a single order 12 - 15 dollars away from price. I couldn't find any info on this, seems strange. (Edit) It seems to be a sort of directional signaling or like a lead. Every time it's below price, the market starts to sell off; when it switches and appears above price, the market starts to push higher. Is anybody watching these anomalies in the heatmap DoM? {image}
its normal on a thin liquidity session..