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Justin's Playground

{quote} {image} {image} {image} I am holding these NG spread positions now. Nat Gas summer & winter calendar spread trading is a low risk cash cow.....
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My Advantage Futures account has been recovered from the day trading loss I made months ago. I always recoup losses from day trading with profits from spread trading. I won't do this again. I will use only prop firm accounts for day trading.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Compared to 10 years ago, has modern day manual day trading become more difficult to make a consistent profit?


Yes ?in many important ways, manual day trading today is generally more difficult to make a consistent profit than it was a decade ago. That doesn抰 mean it抯 impossible, but several structural changes in markets and technology have raised the bar for individual traders. Here抯 why:
1. Markets Are More Efficient

  1. Algorithmic and high-frequency trading (HFT) now dominate many markets. These systems exploit tiny inefficiencies in microseconds, which historically were opportunities for humans. Today, those opportunities are far rarer.
  2. In markets like Forex, equities, and crypto, liquidity algorithms adapt so quickly that human reaction time can be a competitive disadvantage.

Result: Traditional patterns that once worked reliably are now arbitraged away faster.
2. Competition From Smarter Technology

  1. Ten years ago, many discretionary traders still had an edge over slower institutional systems.
  2. Now AI-assisted algorithms, machine learning models, and low-latency execution tools are widely used ?even by some smaller funds.

Result: The playing field isn抰 level; retail traders are competing with automated systems optimized for speed and pattern recognition.
3. Higher Costs & Tighter Spreads

  1. Commissions have dropped, but spreads and execution costs can still eat into profits, especially in fast markets or low-volume stocks.
  2. Some brokers add fees for order routing, data, or 搒mart?execution.

Result: More trades can mean more costs, making net profits harder to sustain.
4. Information Noise Has Exploded

  1. A decade ago, news arrived via financial terminals and scheduled releases. Now:

    1. Markets react instantly to social media, Reddit forums, Twitter/X rumors, and macro surprises.
    2. Sentiment-driven spikes can overwhelm technical analysis signals.

Result: Noise has increased while signal clarity has decreased.
5. Retail Tools Have Improved ?But So Has Risk

  1. Professional-grade charting and backtesting are now accessible to retail traders.
  2. But that also means crowded strategies: once a pattern becomes popular, it stops working as well.

Result: Tools alone don抰 guarantee an edge if everyone uses the same ones.
6. New Asset Classes, New Dynamics

  1. Crypto, micro-caps, and ETFs are popular day trading spaces ?but each has distinct behavior:

    1. Crypto markets trade 24/7 with high volatility but unpredictable flows and often no circuit breakers.
    2. Micro-caps can be manipulated or illiquid.
    3. ETFs introduce arbitrage mechanisms impacting price movements.

Result: There抯 opportunity, but it抯 different and often harder to model consistently.
7. Knowledge Is More Widely Shared

  1. Online trading communities, courses, and YouTube channels democratize strategies. That抯 good ?but when thousands use the same setups, edges get neutralized.

Result: Competitive advantage requires either unique insights or superior execution disciplines.
What Has Become Easier?
Yes, some aspects have improved:
AspectEasier Today?Why
Access to marketsLow-cost brokers, fractional shares
Real-time data & analyticsPowerful platforms and APIs
Learning resourcesOnline courses, mentorship
Execution toolsMixedGood tools available, but so are they to others
Overall Conclusion
Yes, manual day trading to make consistent profits is generally harder now than it was 10 years ago.
The main reasons:

  1. Increased competition from automation
  2. Fewer exploitable inefficiencies
  3. Higher noise relative to signal
  4. Costs and execution challenges

But it抯 not impossible ?profitability still comes from:

  1. Strong discipline
  2. Risk management
  3. Unique strategies or niche edges
  4. Adaptability, not old patterns

If you want, I can break down specific markets (e.g., stocks vs Forex vs crypto) or compare typical returns then vs now based on historical data and research.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Is Natural Gas calendar spread trading using seasonality still profitable?


Natural Gas calendar spread trading based on seasonality can still be profitable, but it抯 not as easy or consistent as it was 10?0 years ago. Since you抮e a day trader, I抣l frame this from both a swing and shorter-term spread perspective.
What We抮e Talking About
Most traders mean trading spreads in:

  1. Natural Gas (NG futures)
  2. Exchange: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)

Typical seasonal spreads:

  1. Winter vs Summer (e.g., Jan朅pr)
  2. Shoulder months (Mar朅pr, Oct朜ov)
  3. Storage-related spreads (Oct朖an, etc.)

Why Seasonality Used to Work Better
Historically:

  1. Predictable winter heating demand
  2. Slower information flow
  3. More physical hedging dominance
  4. Fewer systematic/stat-arb funds

Seasonal storage cycles were more 搈echanical.?br /> What Changed
1. LNG Export Growth
U.S. LNG exports made NG more globally sensitive.
Weather in Europe now impacts U.S. spreads.
2. Weather Models Are Faster
Everyone sees the same NOAA model updates instantly.
3. Algo & Spread Funds
Stat-arb desks trade NG spreads heavily.
Edges get arbitraged faster.
4. Production Volatility
Shale responsiveness dampens some traditional seasonal moves.
Is It Still Profitable?
Yes, but:

  1. Pure 揵uy every March, sell every October?no longer works reliably.
  2. Seasonality is now context-dependent, not automatic.

The edge now comes from:

  1. Seasonality + extreme positioning
  2. Seasonality + storage deviations
  3. Seasonality + weather anomaly
  4. Technical breakdown + seasonal tailwind

Seasonality alone = weak edge
Seasonality + imbalance = real edge
What Still Works in 2025
A. Extreme Storage Divergence Plays
When inventory is far above/below 5-year average, spreads can trend strongly.
B. Volatility Compression → Expansion
NG spreads often coil before major weather shifts.
C. Shoulder Month Mean Reversion
Mar朅pr and Oct朜ov still show structural tendencies.
Risk Profile vs Outright NG
Calendar spreads:

  1. Lower margin
  2. Lower volatility
  3. More stable behavior
  4. Cleaner technical structure

But:

  1. Moves are slower
  2. Profit per contract smaller
  3. Requires patience

Since you抮e a day trader, note:
NG spreads are generally better for swing traders than intraday scalpers.
Intraday spread liquidity can be thin outside peak hours.
Where Traders Go Wrong

  1. Trading seasonality without checking storage
  2. Ignoring COT positioning
  3. Trading spreads during low liquidity
  4. Assuming historical average = future outcome

Bottom Line
Is NG seasonal spread trading still profitable?
Yes ?but only when combined with fundamental imbalance or positioning extremes.
It is no longer a 搒et and forget?edge.
If you抎 like, I can:

  1. Break down the most statistically reliable NG seasonal spread
  2. Or compare NG spreads vs DAX / NQ intraday trading (since you trade those)

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
I am still holding one Apex PA account and holding trading until Apex resumes and allows gold trading again. 180 days of inactivity is allowed for PA accounts. The other accounts are all gone trading NQ. Actually I intentionally over leveraged them because I wanted to pass within a month. From the second month, only 50% discount is applied which I don't think worth paying. I purchase prop firm accounts only when they provide a decent discount. I scalp gold based on JMA and basic structure. It works very nicely until it stops working. The most important skill I think is to know when to step away. Choppy, consolidating days should be avoided unless you are a mean reversion based trader. It seems Steve's strategy is also not very vulnerable to choppy price actions because his strategy is not based on breakout momentum. Actually, breakout based traders have a huge disadvantage.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci