GBP/AUD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure

Hi everyone! I've recently joined the Forex Factory forum and I’d like to share my analysis and trading idea for the GBPAUD pair with you all. My process always starts with a Macro analysis, followed by a statistical market structure analysis to identify the highest-probability assets. I’d love to hear your thoughts on this approach! What do you think?




1. The Macro Context (The "Why")

Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money.
My fundamental scoring table is giving us a clear signal: we have a -4 differential, pointing toward a Bearish (Moderate) bias that we simply can't ignore.


Key Factor Analysis:

Current Rates: Explanation: GBP rates are at 3.75% (comparable to Fed), while AUD sits at 3.6%; both are competitive. Score GBP: +1 | Score AUD: +1
Economic Regime: Explanation: GBP is in a "Goldilocks" expansion phase, while AUD faces stagflation risks with weak PMI but high inflation. Score GBP: +1 | Score AUD: -1
Rate Expectations: Explanation: BOE is dovish following a post-cut pause, while RBA remains hawkish after a recent 25bp hike. Score GBP: -1 | Score AUD: +1
Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Market sentiment is currently neutral with no specific bias for either currency. Score GBP: 0 | Score AUD: 0
COT Score: Explanation: Speculators are shorting GBP with negative momentum, while AUD shows extreme bullishness with a 100% COT Index. Score GBP: -1 | Score AUD: +2

Currency Score Summary: Total Score GBP: +1 (Neutral/Weak) Total Score AUD: +5 (Strong)

Synthesis: GBP (Weak, Score +1): Under pressure due to a dovish BOE and negative speculative momentum despite moderate growth. AUD (Strong, Score +5): Driven by an active tightening cycle, robust 2.3% GDP growth, and maximum bullish speculative positioning.

Conclusion: Given this fundamental backdrop, we are strictly looking for Short setups. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide.

2. The Technical Setup (The "Where")

Timeframe: 15m | Pair: GBP/AUD
The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones [MaB] indicator has confirmed our statistical edge. Here’s the probabilistic data from the dashboard:

Continuation Rate (68.4%): We are currently above the 60% threshold. This confirms a healthy directional trend where continuation has a much higher probability than a reversal.

Streak Analysis (0): We are currently starting a new sequence.
Expected Streak: 2 | 2 | 4 (Percentile: 20th | 50th | 80th)
Remaining Moves: 2. This indicates a [Young] trend. The statistical range suggests a typical duration of 2 to 4 impulses.

Retest & Reaction:
Retest Prob (67.7%): High probability of the price returning to test the supply zone after the Break of Structure (BOS).
BOS/Ret Rate (32.4%): The probability of a direct follow-through reaction once the zone is tapped.

Extension & Projection:
Extension Range: The expected extension for this single leg is between 1.67x and 2.9x (Expected: 1.9x).
Compound Extension (2.79x): This is the total projected move based on the remaining expected impulses. By multiplying the current zone height by this factor, we find our ultimate target.

3. Execution Plan on Chart

Moving over to the charts, we are using these statistics to define our operational levels:

Entry and Stop Loss: We are placing a limit entry within the Supply Zone 15m (Red Band). The stop loss is tucked a few pips outside the zone at 1.91127 to protect against structural invalidation.

Statistical Take Profit: Instead of an arbitrary target, we are leveraging the Compound Extension of 2.79x. We project the target at 1.87965. This allows us to capture the full extension projected by the algorithm.

Trade Parameters:
Entry Price: 1.90824
Stop Loss: 1.91127
Take Profit: 1.87965

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.