vsa with Malcolm | Page 1831 | Forex Factory

HeroPoker_HeroPoker扑克_HeroPoker德扑圈官网

Menu

Options

Similar Threads

VSA-divergence trading 187 replies

How to Blow $200 account using VSA--- 594 replies

VSA Journal 57 replies

VSA broker history change datas 11 replies

Attachments: vsa with Malcolm
Exit Attachments

vsa with Malcolm

Quoting Doze4u
{image} Sir @Anotan can you pleas upload a template and indicator so we can Download this
I'm away from my pc until tomorrow.

The only indicator I use if e signal wick, which literally just makes the candle bar wicks thicker. If you click on the paper clip at the top of the thread, you'll find the indicator.. Maybe look at better volume too, some people find it helpful. I personally don't use it.
Quoting Macallik
In three positions after the afternoon breakdown: Might get stopped out of this {image} Looking slightly better {image} Looking good the best so far {image} Also got stopped out of TLT last week and looking to get back in when the dust settles: {image}
Reduced my size drastically and had 3 more stop outs trying to jump in as the markets got more bullish. The last two were really tough breaks where the markets shook me out and then gapped away so I couldn't participate.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 20 KB


Here's a closer look at my Friday entry. I am up +3R already which essentially wiped out the prior losses:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 34 KB


I am kinda building the plane while flying it, but the goal is to increase my size and add to this position w/ every test bar on the Daily chart until I get a signal to stop. I mentioned it in the past, but I do think it has the potential to be a very good trade long term, w/ fundamental catalysts that seem relevant at a glance such as a recession/boom-cession, a Trump lackey leading the Feds, AI needing long-term (governmental?) investment, etc.
Quoting Macallik
Reduced my size drastically and had 3 more stop outs trying to jump in as the markets got more bullish.
Nice work. This is not a criticism, I just wanted to point out a couple of things for everybody else.

If you were to apply the trigger matrix to the highest volume bar, it sets the playing field for price. Once you've identified the strength coming in, you look for price to move above the 50% line (mean threshold). This would allow you to bypass the "chop" and jump aboard the train when it is actually moving in the direction you want to go.

In short, an understanding of trend would allow you to take advantage of the situation and find better entries. The trend isn't just your friend; it's your lover.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TLT.png Size: 20 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
This is a response to a PM.

I have tried to be a bit ambiguous in terms of trend definition because there are numerous ways to define a trend. For example, an up trend can be defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows, or it could be defined as price being above a moving average. One can also define an up trend occurring when a certain stochastic measures 50 or above.

There may be as many ways as there are traders. But the question always becomes, "What's the best/correct way?" The answer is the best/correct way is the way that resonates with the trader the most. Ultimately, We all trade our own belief systems. Accordingly, that which best fits your belief system is going to suit you better than something that doesn't.

With that being said, a reasonable starting point would be with a 20 EMA of the midpoint. Keep it simple, stupid. Long above and short below. Therefore, price is in an up trend above the EMA and price is in a down trend when price is below the EMA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 64 KB


Take a look at the chart above. Now we have some really clear evidence of when and where we want to be looking to get Long. We placed a trigger matrix on the highest volume bar. Even though the next bar is down, we still see evidence of demand in the first bar. The second bar is clearly effort vs result- its got almost as much volume but nearly half the range. Something must be compressing price. Demand.

With Strength in the background, we want to get long above the 50% line (mean threshold). We also want to get long when price is above the EMA.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
Appreciate the feedback HG. Will carve out some time down the road to backtest the 50% line and see how I feel about it.

On an unrelated note, I think there might be a chance for me to add to my position on the Daily at some time this week potentially (thanks largely to 9 and 13). Gonna do a bar-by-bar of the leadup for my own sanity/context. (I find it's much easier to create a VSA narrative retrospectively than in real time)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20260224_112458.png Size: 33 KB

 

  1. Reduced volume shakeout beyond the prior bar (which was also reduced volume)
  2. EvR as a sign of accumulation
  3. Strong response but supply present
  4. Test and should go higher IMO
  5. Price didn't immediately go higher which was initially concerning but the fact that there's a shakeout beyond the prior bar's lows is a more definitive sign of strength
  6. Strong response to the prior test bar
  7. This is just market makers being mean The only thing things that really point to the next bar being up are strength in the background and a close marginally off the lows (still in the bottom quartile, so it's a reach IMO)
  8. Strong, proud up-bar in response w/ increasing volume. Bulls are taking control more definitively
  9. Market Makers slam the brakes here. Big EvR shift as a sign of concern that needs to be tested away before price continues higher if the move is sustainable. The conspiracy theorist in me says they knew that there would be a ruling on the tariff announcement.
  10. ND + Upthrust w/ weakness in the immediate background
  11. Next bar down confirming the upthrust. Bears are wrestling back control
  12. Test-like bar but weakness in the background. (Very ambiguous and I probably misinterpreted it in real-time)
  13. Strong sign of strength as there is a shakeout through the gap and price closes back inside yesterday's range. The volatility was due to the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. My uneducated guess is that the people that sold @ 9 bought back in here. The fact that it didn't go lower is IMO a sign of aggression/lack of supply.
  14. Attempts to rally away but closes off the highs. It is possible that price will absorb through the resistance level, but unlikely.

My current thought process is that 9 needs to be tested again before price continues higher w/ conviction. If supply is present, then price will head even lower and test 13. I could lock in existing gains and reestablish a position after I see a test, but I would rather keep my existing position w/ the a narrow intraday spread and add to it. We'll see if it is smart or greedy.

Quoting HiddenGap
This is a response to a PM. I have tried to be a bit ambiguous in terms of trend definition because there are numerous ways to define a trend. For example, an up trend
Hi Hidden Gap, I hope evrrything is going well,

Are you still using Pres78 1H volume bar?

Im using (High-Low)*Volume higher than the previous 15 bars or volume above 50% of the moving average to apply the volume matrix, what do you think?

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,607
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 8:32pm (18 hr ago) Feb 27, 8:32pm (18 hr ago)
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Hi Hidden Gap, I hope evrrything is going well, Are you still using Pres78 1H volume bar? Im using (High-Low)*Volume higher than the previous 15 bars or volume above 50% of the moving average to apply the volume matrix, what do you think? Thanks Kind regards
Can you show us an example?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #36,608
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:09pm Feb 27, 8:48pm (17 hr ago) | Edited 9:09pm
It has been two months of choppiness but a VSA story of distribution seems increasingly likely, and also may have possibly concluded w/ the No Demand bar on Wednesday. (Which would cements another lower high):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WlqClvYf.png Size: 51 KB


NVDA is not just the industry leader in semiconductors, but the hub for "buy AI" thesis as the leading GPU manufacturer and is arguably the only thing keeping the market's head above water. This week, NVDA earnings report lead to a sell-off earlier this week in spite of beating most numbers/expectations. On the prior day, there was clear EvR as markets broke out of the existing range but showed clear signs of EvR and a weak close as they sold into the news. There's clear supply hitting the market in the lead-up and response to the Earnings Report:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JeZM9I19.png Size: 47 KB
Here's a screenshot from Master The Markets:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 19 KB

So as the market has become increasingly dependent on the AI trade, what happens to the market when AI starts to clearly distribute? I think it takes the market down with it.

I wouldn't call it likely, but it is possible that there's strong downside momentum today:

  1. Markets down 0.4% in premarket
  2. PPI report due in an hour which could lead to a larger gap lower
  3. Since it's Friday, people might be less interested in carrying risk over the weekend

I've been stalking an (eventual) market breakdown for months and I feel like we might be approaching the end of the beginning, but you never knows w/ markets, so I plan on managing risk and accepting alternative scenarios as the market unfolds.

  • #36,609
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:54pm Feb 27, 9:36pm (16 hr ago) | Edited 9:54pm
Quoting Macallik
Markets down 0.4% in premarket PPI report due in an hour which could lead to a larger gap lower Since it's Friday, people might be less interested in carrying risk over the weekend I've been stalking an (eventual) market breakdown for months and I feel like we might be approaching the end of the beginning, but you never knows w/ markets, so I plan on managing risk and accepting alternative scenarios as the market unfolds.
PPI print must have been negative as markets are now down ~1% in the premarket.

Another variable I forgot to account for is that a handful of SaaS companies reported after yesterday's close. These companies are uniquely vulnerable to AI in general and can potentially exacerbate selling. Here are a handful of pre-market prints for the industry:

  1. DUOL - Down 27% (reported yesterday)
  2. TEAM - Down 4%
  3. CRM - Down 3% (reported day-before-yesterday)
  4. ZM - Down 2% (reported day-before-yesterday)
  5. NOW - Down 4%
  6. DOCU - Down 3%
  7. APP - Down 3%
  8. INTU - Down 2.5% (reported yesterday)
  9. ADSK - Up 1% (reported yesterday)

  • #36,610
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Feb 28, 3:55am (10 hr ago) Feb 28, 3:55am (10 hr ago)
Quoting Frag8383
Are you still using Pres78 1H volume bar?
While the H1 highest volume bar for the last24 hours is still a valid concept, I am not using it. I am using the highest volume bar on the timeframe I am trading.

Quoting Frag8383
I'm using (High-Low)*Volume higher than the previous 15 bars or volume above 50% of the moving average to apply the volume matrix, what do you think? Thanks Kind regards
I'd like to see some examples of this. Ultimately of course, the idea is to identify Significant volume coming into the market.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
17 traders viewing now