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Ichimoku and price action

  • #321
  • Quote
  • Feb 26, 7:06pm (43 hr ago) Feb 26, 7:06pm (43 hr ago)
Quoting Raden Winata
{quote} Are you basing your trades on when all timeframes align, or do you prioritize one specific timeframe as the main direction?
I mainly trade obvious price extremes on timeframes ranging from M1 to M5.

I never look for trend alignment across timeframes, it抯 useless for this specific trading style.

However, I always keep an eye on the slope of the SMA 100 and the layering of the Guppy X 5 (specifically the green ones on my charts). If I am trading in total counter-trend to the SMA 100 and Guppy X 5, my TP will be very fast. I抳e had enough bad experiences aiming for targets too far away, especially with an asset as powerful as the Dax: it gives points quickly, but takes them back even faster.
Dax only.
  • #322
  • Quote
  • Feb 26, 7:36pm (42 hr ago) Feb 26, 7:36pm (42 hr ago)
Quoting Tyross
{quote} I mainly trade obvious price extremes on timeframes ranging from M1 to M5. I never look for trend alignment across timeframes, it抯 useless for this specific trading style. However, I always keep an eye on the slope of the SMA 100 and the layering of the Guppy X 5 (specifically the green ones on my charts). If I am trading in total counter-trend to the SMA 100 and Guppy X 5, my TP will be very fast. I抳e had enough bad experiences aiming for targets too far away, especially with an asset as powerful as the Dax: it gives points quickly, but...
That抯 a very disciplined approach.
Focusing on clear price extremes and adapting TP when trading counter-trend shows strong risk awareness. Especially with something as volatile as DAX, being quick and realistic with targets is a smart move.
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  • #323
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:11pm Feb 26, 9:43pm (40 hr ago) | Edited 11:11pm
http://www.ojas-gujarat-gov-in.com/thread/...1#post15565571

Kumo Anomaly on M15...

This is a period of uncertainty where we could face strong headwinds if the price decides to drop to correct the anomaly.

It’s a risk that shouldn’t be overlooked. We’ll see.

Edit: same configuration on H2...

Edit: I preferred to do nothing. (no commission on indices with my broker) . We'll see tomorrow.
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Dax only.
  • #324
  • Quote
  • Edited 1:00am Feb 27, 12:46am (37 hr ago) | Edited 1:00am
http://www.ojas-gujarat-gov-in.com/thread/...9#post15560009

A fine example of the SMA 100 (yellow) with a very resilient upward slope.

If you look at where the candles were 100 periods ago during this afternoon ( just before the vertical line) , they were far below the current price.

There was a sharp downward move, but it went against the strong trend of the SMA 100 and the Green Guppy.

The price exhausted itself trying to reach that slope reversal threshold (to put it one way), without sustainably threatening the SMA's trajectory.

This type of situation very often leads to a powerful reversal, as seen here. Of course, a support level on a higher timeframe is required to trigger the bounce—which was the case here.

==> How to trade this type of setup? It will be explained in the next post.
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Dax only.
  • #325
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 3:51am (34 hr ago) Feb 27, 3:51am (34 hr ago)
Quoting Tyross
http://www.ojas-gujarat-gov-in.com/thread/...9#post15560009 A fine example of the SMA 100 (yellow) with a very resilient upward slope. If you look at where the candles were 100 periods ago during this afternoon ( just before the vertical line) , they were far below the current price. There was a sharp downward move, but it went against the strong trend of the SMA 100 and the Green Guppy. The price exhausted itself trying to reach that slope reversal threshold (to put it one way), without sustainably threatening the SMA's trajectory....
How to trade this type of setup ?

In this type of setup—meaning a 'solid' SMA 100 slope and bullish green GMMAs—we have the advantage of the trend on our side.

However, we don't know exactly when the price will reverse after its drop. Support levels are zones that lower time frames often overshoot before turning around (these create the rejection wicks seen on higher time frames). Managing single-entry position and stop losse is very tricky on very-low time frames. This is why a multi-positions approach is used to spread a buy position across a wider area.

Personally, I always wait for the price to reach the SMA 100 before I start entering a position. Then, I continue my buys progressively. The goal is to bring the average net price of the overall position as close as possible to the future reversal point. You have to be careful; price can continue its path for a long time, so don't 'spam' the mouse to place orders (this requires some experience).

The essential part is the analysis of the situation: do we have the edge on our side (the trend, a solid SMA, well-spaced green GMMAs, a reaction zone identified on a higher time frame), or are we just winging it and relying on luck?

One important point: a very powerful price move, like the one on this chart, consumes a lot of energy. Imagine each candle as an accelerator pedal: the harder you floor it, the faster you go, but your fuel tank empties quickly. If the price drifts down toward the SMA 100 slowly and calmly, it’s a dangerous situation: instead of a sharp reversal, it might enter a range or oscillate for a long time without truly bouncing back.

Dax only.
  • #326
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 4:21pm (22 hr ago) Feb 27, 4:21pm (22 hr ago)
229 points - 15 minutes of trading.
(Daily goal: 200 points per day).

DAX

How does the indicator account for the trading session?

The 'points gained' indicator measures the distance covered by each individual position and adds them all together. A 1-lot position that moves 20 points: the indicator displays 20 points. A 2-lot position that moves 20 points: it’s the same, the indicator displays 20 points. Position size does not affect the count; only the distance traveled matters.
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Dax only.
  • #327
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 4:43pm (21 hr ago) Feb 27, 4:43pm (21 hr ago)
Quoting Tyross
229 points - 15 minutes of trading. (Daily goal: 200 points per day). DAX How does the indicator account for the trading session? The 'points gained' indicator measures the distance covered by each individual position and adds them all together. A 1-lot position that moves 20 points: the indicator displays 20 points. A 2-lot position that moves 20 points: it抯 the same, the indicator displays 20 points. Position size does not affect the count; only the distance traveled matters. {image}

Impressive result ?229 points in 15 minutes is solid work
I also like how the indicator focuses purely on distance traveled, not lot size. That keeps the performance measurement objective and clean. Very well structured approach.
Nexuna Labs ?Smart Algorithms. Real Performance.
EA Nexuna Prime Return Today: -3.9%
  • #328
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 5:44pm (20 hr ago) Feb 27, 5:44pm (20 hr ago)
That’s it for me; I’m calling it a day. I don’t like Fridays, especially the afternoon (it’s currently 10:34 AM in France).

On Ichimoku, we couldn’t find any resistance levels to sell, so drawing a few lines on the swing highs makes it much easier to navigate.

I know Ichimoku isn’t everyone's cup of tea, and I can understand why. However, I sold earlier because we were under resistance, and on the M15 Ichimoku chart (the one I posted), the Tenkan isn't visible—only the Kijun in blue—and the price is far above it. I mentioned this earlier this week: this is how Ichimoku warns us that the price is overextended, meaning the probabilities for a sell trade are much higher.


Edit: M15...
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Dax only.
  • #329
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 5:55pm (20 hr ago) Feb 27, 5:55pm (20 hr ago)
(no commission on indices with my broker)

Last week : 2505 points, almost the same as this week (2588 points).
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Dax only.
  • #330
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 6:20pm (20 hr ago) Feb 27, 6:20pm (20 hr ago)
I hope these posts are actually helpful. My goal is to demonstrate a multi-position, under-leveraged trading approach, without being reckless.

It抯 about analyzing the DAX very carefully across multiple timeframes and combining trading systems that complement each other.

I抦 not shooting for the moon with my take profits; instead, I keep in mind that short-term trading opportunities are plenty. You take your profits and wait for the next setup.

I probably won抰 post this much in the future桰抣l likely get tired of it梑ut at least the essentials are there.

If I had only one piece of advice: watch the higher timeframes and identify your reaction levels.

Pay attention to the assets you trade, as they don't all behave the same way. An overnight position on the DAX isn't usually a big deal because it's thinly traded during the Asian session (you get gaps, but they抮e manageable). That抯 not the case for Forex, cryptos, or commodities, where overnights are dangerous and price swings can be massive.

Dax only.
  • #331
  • Quote
  • Feb 27, 10:39pm (15 hr ago) Feb 27, 10:39pm (15 hr ago)
Quoting Raden Winata
{quote} Impressive result ?229 points in 15 minutes is solid work I also like how the indicator focuses purely on distance traveled, not lot size. That keeps the performance measurement objective and clean. Very well structured approach.
Thanks, Raden Winata.

There抯 nothing too complicated about it: a clear price overshoot, reaction levels, and a global context to understand the price environment (uptrend, downtrend, range). Honestly, it抯 very accessible.

Regarding the point count, I had the indicator coded to only track distance梚t抯 more realistic that way.
Dax only.
  • #332
  • Quote
  • Feb 28, 5:53am (8 hr ago) Feb 28, 5:53am (8 hr ago)
Quoting Tyross
That抯 it for me; I抦 calling it a day. I don抰 like Fridays, especially the afternoon (it抯 currently 10:34 AM in France). On Ichimoku, we couldn抰 find any resistance levels to sell, so drawing a few lines on the swing highs makes it much easier to navigate. I know Ichimoku isn抰 everyone's cup of tea, and I can understand why. However, I sold earlier because we were under resistance, and on the M15 Ichimoku chart (the one I posted), the Tenkan isn't visible梠nly the Kijun in blue梐nd the price is far above it. I mentioned this earlier this week:...
Salut,
trades around 9:15 are clear for me, because they follow your method whereas your trades after 10AM are less obvious because they don't follow your sma 100 slope rule.
Am I to understand that there are two configurations in your method? one with the sma 100 slope, the other one without ? **
thanks!
  • #333
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Feb 28, 6:05am (8 hr ago) Feb 28, 6:05am (8 hr ago)
Quoting dktaktik
{quote} Salut, trades around 9:15 are clear for me, because they follow your method whereas your trades after 10AM are less obvious because they don't follow your sma 100 slope rule. Am I to understand that there are two configurations in your method? one with the sma 100 slope, the other one without ? ** thanks!
Yes, that's it. I use the SMA slope to secure very short-term trading scenarios. But some situations are easy to trade, so I don't need this SMA.
Dax only.
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