Determining Intraday Currency Strength or Weakness | Forex Factory

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Determining Intraday Currency Strength or Weakness

  • #1
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  • First Post: Feb 27, 10:35am (27 hr ago) Feb 27, 10:35am (27 hr ago)
Hello guys, I wanted to share a method with you guys that I think will be helpful. I started testing it just yesterday but even with one day of testing (yesterday), it seems like it will work so, I plan to forward test it here while we discuss.

This is yesterday's currency strength. It was around 04:00 that I determined GBP would become weak same day, next day, etc. As you can see, the white curve (GBP) became weak.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.png Size: 43 KB

For today, as of now, it appears EUR will become weak. This would be the current blue line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1-1.png Size: 27 KB

I hope this content will be helpful to you guys. Happy trading.
  • #2
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  • Feb 27, 11:18am (27 hr ago) Feb 27, 11:18am (27 hr ago)
So GBP is currently weakening in which currently the USD is rising,So the price is currently at 1.3489 on GBP/USD is it going to drop further?
  • #3
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  • Feb 27, 12:07pm (26 hr ago) Feb 27, 12:07pm (26 hr ago)
Quoting Joh4
So GBP is currently weakening in which currently the USD is rising,So the price is currently at 1.3489 on GBP/USD is it going to drop further?
I'll share the HTML soon which will make it more clear. For now I'll send this screenshot from the HTML that is creating a historical log created by MetaTrader. Okay so, when there's a signal of GBP weakening for example, this was given early in the day on the 25th with EURGBP BUY and GBPAUD SELL, implying GBP weak. So then, GBP will either start getting weak on the 25th or next day. In this case, if we look at the charts, I believe it was mostly the end of day and next day that GBP started getting weak.

On the 25th, GBP was implied to become weak, either starting on 25th or 26th.

On the 26th, GBPNZD was SELL, EURGBP was BUY, once again implying GBP to become weak on the 26th or 27th.

On the 27th (today), EURAUD is SELL, EURNZD SELL, implying EUR will become weak either starting 27th or next day.

Also on the 27th, since after I made the post earlier today, GBPAUD is SELL, GBPNZD is SELL, again implying GBP to become weak on the 27th, or next day.

So to answer your question, the signal is only implying weakness on GBP and also on EUR. The USD may be getting strong as you said but this method didn't capture that. I'm sure another method would capture that USD strength. This particular method is capturing weakness on GBP and also on EUR, so far.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: {50C371D4-2E04-4D04-838C-19F1277AB2E2}.png Size: 17 KB
  • #4
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  • Edited 11:48pm Feb 27, 11:38pm (14 hr ago) | Edited 11:48pm
If this is a currency basket or some custom index - picking a directional trade on random cross pair is not the optimal way to trade it. It was designed to reduce risk, you are supposed to trade the whole basket with corresponding weights..
+ it's likely stationary, although some drift is always present, -- trade mean reversion
No effort - no value.
  • #5
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  • Feb 28, 10:20am (4 hr ago) Feb 28, 10:20am (4 hr ago)
Quoting Joh4
So GBP is currently weakening in which currently the USD is rising,So the price is currently at 1.3489 on GBP/USD is it going to drop further?
GBP (the while curve) became weak on the 27th as was expected. EUR weakness was captured on the 27th which means it's expected to become week either on the same day or next day. I'm not sure how this will translate over the weekend but let's see what happens with EUR on Monday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.png Size: 41 KB
  • #6
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  • Feb 28, 10:33am (4 hr ago) Feb 28, 10:33am (4 hr ago)
Based on what was logged for the 27th (Friday), EUR and GBP are both expected to move downwards on the currency strength indicator same day or next day, which in this case, the next day would be Saturday but I'm guessing we will see it as possibly a gap down on Monday. I'm not sure, let's see what happens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2026-02-28 10_29_17-Algo Trading 鈥?Tor Browser.png Size: 8 KB
  • #7
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  • Feb 28, 10:46am (3 hr ago) Feb 28, 10:46am (3 hr ago)
I just made an interesting observation that I think would be helpful to share. Since GBP and EUR were expected to be weak on the 27th, and correct me if I'm wrong but the CHF is mostly considered a strong currency, then trading CHF vs GBP and EUR gave a good movement on both GBPCHF and EURCHF.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFM1.png Size: 12 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFM1.png Size: 13 KB
  • #8
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  • Last Post: Feb 28, 11:57am (2 hr 36 min ago) Feb 28, 11:57am (2 hr 36 min ago)
Quoting W0lfram
If this is a currency basket or some custom index - picking a directional trade on random cross pair is not the optimal way to trade it. It was designed to reduce risk, you are supposed to trade the whole basket with corresponding weights.. + it's likely stationary, although some drift is always present, -- trade mean reversion
It's being computed from a basket trading all Forex pairs. In my application. he basket itself isn't being traded to generate profit. The computations are being done on the basket as it's being built intraday.
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