{quote} Hope so!{image}
Soa let's see what happens!
Stop Procrastinating
Only EURUSD
- Joined Jan 2024 | Status: #freepalestine | 3,710 Posts
Soa let's see what happens!
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 7,758 Posts | Online Now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,099 Posts
EU cpi missed today, so ECB should sound more dovish tomorrow. If and us ADP and us Ism services come well for the dollar then I expect serious drawdown! Take care 
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,099 Posts
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,563 Posts
It's slowing down now. Should be a nice consolidation now between 50% (1.1800) and 61.8% (1.1745) before it continues it's downward path. And if you dabble in other markets, as the USD gets stronger, other markets... It's all lining up, wars, protests, weak US economy, and high US treasury rates, US government shutdowns'. Bad news = good news for USD
History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme - Mark Twain
Happy trades to you,
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,563 Posts
If you look how steep the angles are in the rise and fall, it's clear that we need to consolidate So I will be holding short EURUSD in long term account, some hedge long in swing account, and using short term account to make a paycheck trading the ranges. I am swinging a small line in the scalps, looking to ride the surf. The tide looks like it's coming in now for some long scalp opportunity, until Tokyo open. Ride the waves
. But don't think the bull is alive now. It's a bear market, you know!Happy trades to you,
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,099 Posts
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,099 Posts
{quote} So far looks like USD interest rate cuts on hold. Trump might want them, but this news/moves afterwards suggest they may stay on hold.
Take care see you tomorrow again!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,168 Posts
EURUSD SMC There has been a change on H1 compared to yesterday. H1 – clean verdict (without H4 context)H1 CHOCH UP Occurred at 1.18292 Price: broke the last H1 lower high after a sequence of LH / LL → character change
CHOCH UP = confirmed
The only change since the morning is that H1 has broken back into bearish and realigned with the H4 downtrend.
EURUSD
CHOCH DOWN (H4) — 1.19415Change of the main structure from bullish → bearish
BOS DOWN (H4) — 1.1760Confirmation of the H4 downtrend
H1 pivot / BOS-CHOCH UP — 1.18292Intraday decision level
H4 demand zone
Bias- H4: bearish below 1.19415, confirmed below 1.1760
- H1: bullish only above 1.18292, otherwise back to bearish
One sentence:
Direction is determined by 1.19415 (H4), while the intraday decision is made by 1.18292.
Tomorrow is ECB day = fundamentals override technicals.
Trendlines, SMC
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 7,758 Posts | Online Now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 7,758 Posts | Online Now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,168 Posts
EURUSD H1
trendlines, SMC
BOS DOWN (H1) is around 1.17905, BUT only if we get an H1 CLOSE below this low.
trendlines, SMC
BOS DOWN (H1) is around 1.17905, BUT only if we get an H1 CLOSE below this low.- yesterday’s H1 low ≈ 1.17905
- price has traded below this low
Confirmation that:
- the bearish direction is genuinely continuing
- this is not just a fake break below 1.18292
Correct sequence:
- 1.18292 breaks → H1 bullish structure invalidated
- ~1.17905 breaks → BOS DOWN (continuation)
Current market “box”
1.1845 – 1.1760
H4 transition / decision zone
As long as:
- there is NO H4 close below 1.1760, and at the same time
- NO H4 close above 1.1845
then:
- the market can move up and down within this range
- without changing the main scenario.
Why this is happening
- the old bullish trend has been invalidated
- the new bearish trend is not yet confirmed
Smart money:
- is distributing
- is collecting liquidity on both sides
Retail traders get stopped out both up and down
therefore this is a chop / range / work area.
The decision will come only when:
H4 close < 1.1760 → the DOWN trend activates
H4 close > 1.1845 → the bearish scenario is invalidated
Between 1.1845 – 1.1760, direction is not decided — only ammunition is being collected.
Today is ECB day = fundamentals override technicals.
Trendlines, SMC
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,168 Posts
EURUSD
Is the “decision zone” already R?
YES.
The blue decision zone around 1.1845 – 1.1829 is currently resistance.
Reason:
Is the “decision zone” already R?YES.
The blue decision zone around 1.1845 – 1.1829 is currently resistance.
Reason:
- the H1 bullish structure was invalidated (below 1.18292)
- returns into the zone are retests from below
- the market is already reacting with rejection there
currently acting as R
ECB – hawkish scenario
If the ECB is clearly hawkish:
The first stop must be broken:
R: 1.1845 (decision zone)
Without an H1 close above 1.1845, every spike is just a liquidity grab.
If that succeeds:
The next real stop is the upper red trendline (~1.1890 – 1.1910)
That’s where I would expect the first strong rejection.
moving straight higher without a retest of 1.1845 is unlikely.
If ECB is neutral / dovish:
- 1.1845 holds as R
- continuation lower into the range
Summary:
- 1.1845 = key decision / resistance zone
- above it → chance for a higher squeeze
- below it → the market respects the H4 bearish context
1.1760 must not be ignored — it is the lower anchor of this entire structure.
Trendlines, SMC