The curve edged higher on the smidgen of reduced negative commentary from the FOMC statement, and the commentary from Chair Powell subsequently copper-fastened the market notion that rate cuts are off the agenda, at least for now. This week, the 10yr yield edged up from the 4.2% area on Monday to 4.25% post the FOMC (and is higher today, pre and post the FOMC). It’s been quite the week for dollar products, given the FX intervention talk out of Japan, and then the dollar weakness push from President Trump. Add that vulnerability to a ...

The policy rate held unchanged at 3.75% as universally expected and the bias remains heavily conditional upon future data and developments. Label this outing ?5 unnecessary questions for a press conference that was 47 minutes too long.?You had me at simply saying I'm not changing today, dunno about the future, we’ll see you then after more data. At least the statement was short and sweet. Like the case of the BoC in the morning, markets barely even noticed (charts 1?). The 2s yield is unchanged. Full year Fed-pricing was unchanged ...

The Federal Reserve held policy rates steady in a 10-2 vote as widely expected. Both Governors Stephen Miran and Chris Waller voted for 25bp cuts as we suspected. Remember this is Stephen Miran’s last meeting with his term ending on Saturday. Chris Waller’s name continues to be mentioned in connection with the Fed Chair position, but he is now seen in a distant third place behind both Rick Rieder and Kevin Warsh by prediction markets. The key takeaway is a slightly hawkish twist to the accompanying statement and press conference. At ...

Despite two dovish dissents, The Fed is likely on an “extended pause?noting strong activity data and signs of stabilization in the labor market. However, Goldman "expects easing to resume later in the year as a moderation in inflation allows for two further ‘normalization?cuts to take rates back to levels seen by the median FOMC member as neutral.?Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis, says at the end of the day here the Fed is “on hold until data prompts a move.?"We have now entered a new phase of policymaking where ...

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) paused rates today at its January meeting, ending a string of three cuts in a row late last year. The decision was no surprise, and markets are priced for steady policy the next few months as inflation remains above target and unemployment is low despite the slowdown in hiring. Moreover, financial conditions are loose and there are few signs of stress in the financial system. There were two dissents. Both Governor Stephen Miran—nominated by President Trump last year—and Governor Christopher ...

The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy; promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad; promotes the ...

With the Federal Reserve widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday afternoon, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and what clues he provides about when the central bank could cut rates again. Numerous signs point to not anytime soon. After making three rate cuts at the end of last year to address concerns over the job market and absorbing more economic data since their last meeting, several Fed officials have signaled a near-term pause, saying “policy is in a good place.?Matt Luzzetti, chief ...