1. US rates staying restrictive but peaking
2. Europe stabilizing but not accelerating

That creates balance, not trend. The POC stack confirms that.

The POC cluster: 1.1581 ?1.1689

Multiple 4H POCs stacked in that zone tells you one thing very clearly:
This is where the market agrees on “fair value.?/b>

Implications:

1. Price is accepted here → chop, rotation, mean reversion.
2. Breaks outside this zone need fresh information (rates, USD, risk).
3. Until then, initiative traders get faded.

So structurally:

1. Value area
2. Magnet zone
3. Fake breakout risk is high

What price just did (important)
You had:

1. Strong impulsive move up (USD weakness / rate relief)
2. Extension above value
3. Failure to hold above prior high
4. Roll-over back into value

That’s classic initiative → responsive handoff.

Meaning:

1. Buyers tried to reprice EURUSD higher
2. Market said: “Not yet?/li>
3. Now we’re back to rotation logic

Key levels from chart

Upper boundary (risk-on confirmation)
~1.1815 ?1.1850

1. Prior high + poor acceptance above
2. Needs:
   1. Softer US data
   2. Dovish Jefferson tone
   3. Falling front-end yields

3. If accepted above → opens 1.195?.20 macro leg

Value zone
1.1689 ?1.1581

1. Balance
2. Expect:
   1. Chop
   2. Mean reversion
   3. VWAP / POC-to-POC trades

3. Trend strategies die here

Lower boundary (USD strength / risk-off)
~1.1515 ?1.1550

1. Acceptance below = regime shift
2. Would imply:
   1. Higher US yields
   2. Inflation expectations ticking up
   3. Hawkish Fed rhetoric

How today’s US macro fits into this

Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations @ 16pm CET

1. If inflation expectations stay elevated → USD bid → pressure toward lower value
2. If sentiment weakens hard → rates down → EURUSD back to upper value

Jefferson speaks

1. Any pushback against early cuts = EURUSD capped
2. Any acknowledgment of disinflation progress = upside attempt

Market psychology right now
This is not a conviction market.
It’s:

1. “We think rates will fall?/li>
2. “But we’re not ready to price it aggressively?/li>

Which equals:
Range first, trend later

Why range trading beats breakout trading here

Macro = neutral, not catalytic
Right now we have:

1. No decisive Fed pivot
2. No inflation shock
3. No growth re-acceleration in Europe

That means:
There is no macro force strong enough to reprice fair value.
When macro can’t reprice value, price rotates around it.

Volume profile confirms acceptance

That POC stack between 1.158?.169 isn’t noise, it’s agreement.
High agreement →

1. Breakouts lack follow-through
2. Stops get hunted
3. Momentum traders donate liquidity

Which is why:
Initiative trades fail, responsive trades win

Failed auction = range signal
Price already tried to:

1. Break above value
2. Hold above prior highs

It failed.
That’s not bullish or bearish, that’s rejection of trend.
Markets that fail auctions don’t trend next?br /> They balance.

Base case

1. EURUSD rotates inside 1.158 ?1.169
2. Expect:
   1. Slow grind
   2. Mean reversion
   3. Liquidity sweeps at edges

Best trades

1. Fade strength near 1.168?.169
2. Buy weakness near 1.158?.160
3. Tight invalidation just outside value

Worst trades

1. Chasing mid-range
2. Breakout entries without:
   1. Yield confirmation
   2. USD follow-through
   3. Acceptance outside value

What would invalidate range trading?
Only two things:

1. Acceptance above 1.181 → new higher value
2. Acceptance below 1.155 → USD regime shift

Until then:
Treat every breakout as guilty until proven innocent